You're right, as far as the average driver goes.
But in the hands of a motivated/skilled driver, a manual will simply spank the CVT in urban driving, I have no doubt.
The open road is a different story. That will depend on top gear/final drive ratios.
Regardless, I'm hopeful that we'll get the choice. The U.K. Mirage has both transmissions, as does Australia/NZ (I think ... nope! Correction:
NZ will only get the CVT.). Canada
should get the choice because we tend to buy significantly more small cars with manuals per-capita than Americans do, but we may get lumped in with the U.S. anyway because we're joined at the hip.