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Come on - I thought you were a scientist? The sun's output has been varying, and we have had volcanic eruptions - and there is a lag time of 30-50 years or so. We have just come through an unusually low minimum in the sunspot cycle, but we now will have an increase in light from the sun as the sunspots increase. Also, our particulate pollution was shading us somewhat - ironically, now that we have cleaner air (in the US and Europe anyway) more sunlight will come through (instead of reflect away) and warming will increase.
Suffice it to say that how warm the climate gets depends on the balance of incoming energy, and how much of that energy gets retained. There are at least four major forcings and myriad of more minor ones. The temperature is not locked into a straight linear relationship with any one factor. I would have thought that was obvious by now?
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