It's all over but for the sweating?

[NeilBlanchard]

Okay... The baseline in different and the time span has greatly expanded - the so-called Medieval Warm Period doesn't disappear, but it does get put into a bigger context, so it looks less dramatic. Also, maybe it was warm in Europe, but not on other places around the globe? That's what new data does sometimes.

The overall pattern is not in question. The physics of the situation are accepted by virtually everyone. Carbon dioxide is now rising for a different reason that it has risen in the past.

We are currently at 395ppm which is higher than in the past 15 Million years. And the temperature is rising faster than in a very long time.

The next decade or two are the most important time for humankind. Are we gonna' go into the dustbin of time with a whimper, or are we going to try to do what we think is best, based on our best understanding of reality?

[Arragonis]

The data doesn't appear to be new, just selected and processed differently. The common thread on comments on Curry's blog, the Register Article (earlier post) and here at DotEarth seems to point out the low frequency of historic data which could mean shorter events and changes (under 500 years) are not shown. The questioning is around the validity therefore of effectively gaffer taping under 250 years of high frequency data to the end which show changes which may have also happened earlier but aren't being shown.

Wonder how many times those graphs will appear in the next IPCC report ?

[Arragonis]

In other news, it looks like Japan is answering the question of how to power it's industrial economy after closing it's nuclear stations by turning to renewa..., oops - no, sorry - fossil fuels, with a new source of gas.

Japan Begins Test Production of Frozen Gas Under Seabed - Businessweek

Japan, which imports almost all its energy, produced gas in the world’s first tests to extract the fuel from methane hydrate deposits under the seabed, Japan Oil, Gas & Metals National Corp. said in an e-mailed statement.

Gas was produced during drilling today in the Nankai Trough about 50 kilometers (31 miles) off the coast of the country’s main Honshu island, the government-affiliate known as JOGMEC said.

Deposits of methane hydrate, known as “burnable ice,” may be large enough to supply the country’s natural gas needs for about 100 years, according to JOGMEC. The government plans to develop technology to enable commercial use by fiscal 2018.

“Methane hydrate may start a revolution in Japan as shale gas did in the U.S., but there are still a lot of challenges ahead,” said Yuji Morita, a senior researcher at the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan.

So they won't be going cold anytime soon.

[freebeard]

Originally Posted by NeilBlanchard

The next decade or two are the most important time for humankind. Are we gonna' go into the dustbin of time with a whimper, or are we going to try to do what we think is best, based on our best understanding of reality?

That time period started in the 1970's. The only question is, is it too late yet?

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by Arragonis

The data doesn't appear to be new, just selected and processed differently. The common thread on comments on Curry's blog, the Register Article (earlier post) and here at DotEarth seems to point out the low frequency of historic data which could mean shorter events and changes (under 500 years) are not shown. The questioning is around the validity therefore of effectively gaffer taping under 250 years of high frequency data to the end which show changes which may have also happened earlier but aren't being shown.

Let me attempt a translation for you: "I don't like what the best available data shows, so I'm going to pretend it doesn't exist". Or (to steal yet another idea from Terry Pratchett) if you stick your head under the blanket, the boogyman goes away :-)

[Arragonis]

Originally Posted by NeilBlanchard

We are currently at 395ppm which is higher than in the past 15 Million years. And the temperature is rising faster than in a very long time.

I'm interested in following this, if others are game - CO2 has risen in a straight line (more or less) during measured periods (which is only since WW2 by instrumentation, estimates and proxies before that) but temps haven't - there is the "escalator" theory (favoured by Skeptical Science) and the "hidden heat in the seas" theory (for which evidence is slight to none at all).

[Arragonis]

Originally Posted by jamesqf

Let me attempt a translation for you: "I don't like what the best available data shows, so I'm going to pretend it doesn't exist". Or (to steal yet another idea from Terry Pratchett) if you stick your head under the blanket, the boogyman goes away :-)

Best Available ? You are "havin a giraffe".

[NeilBlanchard]

Come on - I thought you were a scientist? The sun's output has been varying, and we have had volcanic eruptions - and there is a lag time of 30-50 years or so. We have just come through an unusually low minimum in the sunspot cycle, but we now will have an increase in light from the sun as the sunspots increase. Also, our particulate pollution was shading us somewhat - ironically, now that we have cleaner air (in the US and Europe anyway) more sunlight will come through (instead of reflect away) and warming will increase.

Suffice it to say that how warm the climate gets depends on the balance of incoming energy, and how much of that energy gets retained. There are at least four major forcings and myriad of more minor ones. The temperature is not locked into a straight linear relationship with any one factor. I would have thought that was obvious by now?

[freebeard]

I'm interested in following this, if others are game - CO2 has risen in a straight line (more or less) during measured periods (which is only since WW2 by instrumentation, estimates and proxies before that) but temps haven't

Also, our particulate pollution was shading us somewhat - ironically, now that we have cleaner air (in the US and Europe anyway) more sunlight will come through (instead of reflect away) and warming will increase.

Suffice it to say that how warm the climate gets depends on the balance of incoming energy, and how much of that energy gets retained. There are at least four major forcings and myriad of more minor ones.

The overall trend was toward an Ice Age, but anthropogenic CO2 has moderated that, and China's air pollution also.

The Sun's output rules (without it we would only have the tides ); but the robustness of the Earth's magnetosphere determines how much gets through.

Energy from Space

[Arragonis]

Originally Posted by NeilBlanchard

Come on - I thought you were a scientist?

I'm a climate scientist in the same way you are an aero expert, and probably via the same routes

Originally Posted by freebeard

The overall trend was toward an Ice Age, but anthropogenic CO2 has moderated that, and China's air pollution also.

So really we shouldn't do anything, otherwise we all freeze