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"You're on a TV show and there are three doors: Door 1, 2, & 3. Behind one is a brand new car. Behind the others, nothing. You make your choice and the host opens an unchosen door that he knows is empty. He gives you the option to either stay with your original pick or change to the other unopen door.
What is the smartest choice? Stay, switch, or does it really matter? "
Answer is Chose the other door.
The door you chose had a 1 in 3 chance of being Correct (33%)
so there is a 66% chance the OTHER doors are correct
Knowing that one of them is now INCORRECT - that 66% chance is now on the OTHER DOOR.
one would think that once the other door is opened the odds change to 50/50 but they do not - it is not like a coin flip - the past decision effects the current decision.
Take the other door. ( unless the car in question is an H3 - then you might be better off Losing"
steve
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Steve - AKA Doofus McFancypants
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"If there's a new way, I'll be the first in line - But it better work this time"
 First Milestone passed - 30 MPG (city) 5/15/08
Best City Tank - 8/31/09- 34.3 MPG (EPA= 20)
Best Highway Tank - 5/20/09 - 36.5 MPG (EPA= 28)
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In effort to drive less:
Miles NOT driven in 2009 = 648 (Work from home and Alt Transporatation)
Last edited by Doofus McFancypants; 06-23-2008 at 01:30 PM..
Reason: humor
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