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EfficientCanuck, this is an "it depends" situation - with the main criteria being where you do the bulk of your driving:
If primarily highway, choose the car with the better rating, as the deciding factor for best cruising RPM is gearing. (Unless you're willing to do pulse & glide highway driving with a manual over long distances, which most drivers aren't.)
If not primarily highway, the manual affords far more opportunities to drive efficiently than the automatic, regardless of the respective ratings.
Off the top of my head, I can't think of anyone who's compared auto vs. manual percent differences while ecodriving/hypermiling an otherwise identical car. I'm sure it's been done though.
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