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If you disconnect the speedo cable from the gearbox can you see if the sleeve with the slot in it (gearbox side) turns when the wheels are turning?
Another thought, I have never tried this, but could you use a cordless drill on low speed to turn the inner part of the speedo cable (cable side) to see if that gets the needle moving?
At least that way you could isolate it to a gearbox problem or speedo/cable problem.
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