Gas Stations: "Reports of my death are an exaggeration"
I'm more inclined to believe that we will be closer to the DoE report that the author references showing that in 2040 electric cars will still be a small minority.
It's one thing to have a niche market of EVs, it's entirely another to have the majority of cars be EVs. For that to happen, we need robust, long-lasting batteries that are not reliant on rare-earth materials. I don't see that happening any time soon.
The author praises the Tesla and uses it to show the wonders of the electric car:
- It’s more fun to drive, with smooth, transmission-less acceleration. For most of us it is the fastest car we have ever owned.
- It’s quieter at all times and nearly silent at low speeds.
- It is always “full” every morning one drives it and you never need to go to a gas station.
- It has a user interface - including, notably, its navigation system - as superior to that of other cars as the iPhone was to earlier phones.
- It is connected to the Internet.
- It continuously gets better with automatic updates and software improvements.
- It’s more roomy and has a trunk in the front (the “frunk”) AND a spacious back.
- It comes with an app that allows you to manage the car from your phone.
- It allows you to drive in the carpool lane and to sign up for a cheaper energy usage plan at home (obviously these incentives won’t last, but they will help get us to the tipping point described below).
But this is for a car that ranges from
$70,000-145,000! For that kind of money, a gas-powered car will have most of this too. It won't be "full every morning" but the trade off is that it is a lot easier to take a 1000 mile road-trip in a gas car.
Compare the more plebian EVs (Nissan Leaf) to your typical gas car and I think you'll find far less excitement from your average car buyer. I think the success or failure of the Bolt will be far more telling than any of the current EVs since it looks more like a normal car, has a pretty decent range, and is priced low enough to be competitive with conventional commuter cars.
The author uses smartphones as an example for why electrics are going to take off. I think people's experiences with smartphones may be why resale value of electrics is atrocious. Most people seem to think smartphones are disposable and replace them after two years. By then they screens are cracked and the battery life is severely depleted. If the battery in your other electronics only lasts a few years, why spend so much on an electric car that you will replace in two years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by pgfpro
When I got my driver license in 1977 there wasn't very many gas stations around. I think its probably gone up 90% since then? People did just fine then and didn't have a OMG I might run out of gas because I can't find a gas station moment.lol So I think it will be a while before we see this.
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I grew up in Alaska and there were long stretches of road with no gas stations. When we drove through these, we'd just bring a 5-gallon fuel tank or two. It was really no big deal. Try doing that with an EV.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pgfpro
Also they are saying the cost of electricity in my area is going to go up substantially because of the drought we been having for the last 5 years. We get all or most of our electricity from hydroelectric. This year is really bad, all our rivers and streams are extremely low.  Plus in the NW this year were consuming a ton of electricity for AC. Its a record hot Summer. |
I hadn't heard about a rate hike. Do you use PSE? I'm not too worried about it though, rates are pretty low around here and we actually had a rate reduction last summer.
For reference, PSE reports only about 1/3 hydroelectric as of 2013:
Electric Supply