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Old 02-02-2016, 05:33 AM   #3 (permalink)
redpoint5
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His predictions and comparisons are too optimistic for EV, autonomy, and solar. For instance, he says EVs are 5x more efficient than gasoline vehicles, stating that an ICE is 20% efficient and assuming the EV is 100%. He also says that solar will provide 100% of energy demand by 2030, which is impossible. Airplanes will never run on solar, and energy production will always need a supplement for when the sun isn't shining.

We can't assume a Moore's law of increasing performance and reduced production costs because there are physical limitations. Chemistry only allows for so much energy density to be reached. In the computer chip industry, we are quickly nearing the end of Moore's law and the exponential shrink of the transistor. Intel missed a recent release date for their processor because shrinking the transistor size was more difficult than they anticipated.

The law of diminishing returns means that each improvement in performance, cost reduction, or efficiency becomes more difficult.

All that said, I agree that the technologies he talks about will trend towards his predictions, although at a slower rate.
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