The Future of the Automobile Lecture

[ChewChewTrain]

This YouTube lecture about the future of the automobile will either excite or scare you. What ever you do do NOT buy any new cars until this all plays out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBkND76J91k

What do you think?

Doug in Oakland, CA

[niky]

If you're an automotive enthusiast... it isn't all gloom and doom.

When the horse was phased out, we didn't suddenly euthanize all the horses. You could still have them shod, if you needed to, you could still own them. It just became impractical to buy new horses to go to work.

Our generation will still be able to hold onto and maintain gasoline-powered vehicles for maybe a decade or two after the switch... but we will be forced to not use them in certain areas, like city centers, or business districts. Meaning those of us who will keep them will only utilize them as weekend toys.

-

That's *if* electrics reach the point where the range anxiety issue is either addressed or made moot by better charging infrastructure. I'm not holding my breath for that. But I can certainly spare one for cleaner city-center air.

And unlike some petrolheads, I have absolutely no problem with the sound of an EV. Speed is speed, whatever is driving the wheels.

---

Still going through the video, but some flags:

1. Tesla's infinite mileage warranty... not a viable model, especially as the oldest Tesla Model S's are starting to experience problems.

2. Regarding the price-performance curve: A Porsche 911 is not necessarily expensive due to the performance. You're paying for intangibles with that money. "Status". "Luxury". It would be better to compare the Tesla price/power equation to other American "performance" cars.

3. Wondering how quickly battery costs CAN go down, especially if low gas prices depress EV sales. I hope the low cost of oil will encourage governments to spend on EVs while the cost of transport of parts and material is cheap.

[redpoint5]

His predictions and comparisons are too optimistic for EV, autonomy, and solar. For instance, he says EVs are 5x more efficient than gasoline vehicles, stating that an ICE is 20% efficient and assuming the EV is 100%. He also says that solar will provide 100% of energy demand by 2030, which is impossible. Airplanes will never run on solar, and energy production will always need a supplement for when the sun isn't shining.

We can't assume a Moore's law of increasing performance and reduced production costs because there are physical limitations. Chemistry only allows for so much energy density to be reached. In the computer chip industry, we are quickly nearing the end of Moore's law and the exponential shrink of the transistor. Intel missed a recent release date for their processor because shrinking the transistor size was more difficult than they anticipated.

The law of diminishing returns means that each improvement in performance, cost reduction, or efficiency becomes more difficult.

All that said, I agree that the technologies he talks about will trend towards his predictions, although at a slower rate.

[user removed]

The first example is the history of New York City, not the USA. Took a lot longer out in the boonies. Will add comments shortly.

Disruptive? Why not Rapid Evolution. Saw a news feature about a gal riding her horse to work, but I don't mind missing the poop.

Best IC engine is 56% efficient. Best EV is no more than 85% BEFORE IT ROTATES A WHEEL ONE REVOLUTION. NO EV is 280% efficient.

We are no where near as good as we can built IC engined cars.
Average efficiency could be doubled in a decade.

$5 in fuel gets me close to 170 miles. 16 times that far on $80, coast to coast?

6:47 I'll take a break BBL.
It gets booring when all the "facts" aren't facts at all.

No mention of the depreciation. I could live well off only the depreciation of a single Tesla.

Cheap maintenance, Christ, toss my maintenance into the depreciation black hole

7:52 All your 10x are lies that will become obvious. No maintenance? shocks, tires, batteries. Buy a pack for your Tesla when it sits long enough to be a brick, oops no warranty for abuse.

Now I have heard it all. Your $100,000 electric car has more power than any gas engine model, AND THE MOTOR NEVER WEARS OUT.

It's exactly the same sales tactic buyers are subjected to as stupidium.

10:42. Get your facts straight or it's propaganda.

I DON'T WANT MORE POWER. YOU JUST TRY TO CONVINCE ME THAT IS WHAT I WANT, but when you tell me it costs $100k I want neither YOUR solution OR a Porsche Carrera. I'll take my Mirage and $87,000 in the bank, thank you,which is what I have. MY 87k is not blowing away at 2k a month depreciation.

Extreme Example Rationalization.

11:25

regards
mech

[Xist]

I think that I am grumpy enough without watching the video!

[ChewChewTrain]

Originally Posted by Xist

I think that I am grumpy enough without watching the video!

EUREKA!!! I have found an honest man.

[ChewChewTrain]

Originally Posted by Old Mechanic

The first example is the history of New York City, not the USA. Took a lot longer out in the boonies. Will add comments shortly.

Disruptive? Why not Rapid Evolution. Saw a news feature about a gal riding her horse to work, but I don't mind missing the poop.

Best IC engine is 56% efficient. Best EV is no more than 85% BEFORE IT ROTATES A WHEEL ONE REVOLUTION. NO EV is 280% efficient.

We are no where near as good as we can built IC engined cars.
Average efficiency could be doubled in a decade.

$5 in fuel gets me close to 170 miles. 16 times that far on $80, coast to coast?

6:47 I'll take a break BBL.
It gets booring when all the "facts" aren't facts at all.

No mention of the depreciation. I could live well off only the depreciation of a single Tesla.

Cheap maintenance, Christ, toss my maintenance into the depreciation black hole

7:52 All your 10x are lies that will become obvious. No maintenance? shocks, tires, batteries. Buy a pack for your Tesla when it sits long enough to be a brick, oops no warranty for abuse.

Now I have heard it all. Your $100,000 electric car has more power than any gas engine model, AND THE MOTOR NEVER WEARS OUT.

It's exactly the same sales tactic buyers are subjected to as stupidium.

10:42. Get your facts straight or it's propaganda.

I DON'T WANT MORE POWER. YOU JUST TRY TO CONVINCE ME THAT IS WHAT I WANT, but when you tell me it costs $100k I want neither YOUR solution OR a Porsche Carrera. I'll take my Mirage and $87,000 in the bank, thank you,which is what I have. MY 87k is not blowing away at 2k a month depreciation.

Extreme Example Rationalization.

11:25

regards
mech

Ok. Just for THAT, you get to stand at the back of the line for EVs.

[Xist]

Better hold his spot, he will be out driving his Mirage!

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by niky

Our generation will still be able to hold onto and maintain gasoline-powered vehicles for maybe a decade or two after the switch... but we will be forced to not use them in certain areas, like city centers, or business districts.

But why on earth would you want to drive in city centers/business districts, if there was any practical alternative?

Meaning those of us who will keep them will only utilize them as weekend toys.

There are plenty of people whose lifestyle does not take them into city centers &c on a regular basis, certainly not every workday. With the spread of reasonably fast internet into rural areas, more people will be able to avoid commuting.

And unlike some petrolheads, I have absolutely no problem with the sound of an EV.

I'd go even further: the quiet is yet another reason to drive an EV.

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

I see all this push for EVs as another attempt to soften the average white Joe. I'd rather ride a gasser scooter before I ever lurk to buy an EV.