Fuel Economy, Hypermiling, EcoModding News and Forum - EcoModder.com - View Single Post - Jalopnik asks if self-driving cars will actually happen.

sendler · 12-02-2017, 10:01 AM

This discussion is missing the end point of autonomous cars. It's not just a driving aid so that people in their own car can read instead of driving. Driverless ride sharing is the big goal. These cars won't even have any steering wheel or controls and so will be that much cheaper for the fleet to build and buy.
Ride sharing is coming at us at full speed. Uber has already disrupted the long standing taxi business. And autonomous cars will displace the Uber driver. Several companies are all pursuing this at a breakneck pace
People in rural areas will still want to have their own car for a while but it will get more and more expensive. But most people in large cities, many of whom already don't own a car, will use autonomous ride sharing.
And it will be more like a bus service or car pool using 4-6 passenger vehicles where you schedule a ride from a huge database of available cars and it shows up on time with 3 people already in it. You get in. Several blocks or miles down the road toward your destination, someone gets out. A few more blocks on the way, someone else gets in. A few more blocks and you get out. Ect. Like a custom bus route.
This is a huge disruption to one of the biggest money making businesses in the world. New car sales from private dealers will go flat even as world population and standard of living continue to rise (until the Great Simplification at the end of oil). And all of these cars will be electric with 1C charge rates.
The parking garage empires in large cities will also be disrupted since autonomous ride sharing cars will never be parked unless they need a charge. If the garages are smart they will work to become charge points for hundreds of autonomous cars to remain valid. 30 minutes of charge later a Chevy bolt type van will be ready for another 100 miles of stop and go traffic.
And all of these electric cars in fleets will need minimal maintenance. So there goes the dealer service business. Huge disruption. I'm a dealer mechanic. The end of one of the most profitable private business models is approaching.
.
Robot taxis are already phasing in at several USA cities. It's like an amusement ride at this point but it will push forward to become mainstream much quicker than we would imagine. Major roll outs will start to seek safety certification in 3 years.
Chip makers are focusing on vehicle AI as this will be bigger than the gaming indusry.
.
https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/self-dr...cars/drive-px/
.

12-02-2017, 10:01 AM	#29 (permalink)
sendler Master EcoModder Join Date: May 2011 Location: Syracuse, NY USA Posts: 2,935 Honda CBR250R FI Single - '11 Honda CBR250R 90 day: 105.14 mpg (US) 2001 Honda Insight stick - '01 Honda Insight manual 90 day: 60.68 mpg (US) 2009 Honda Fit auto - '09 Honda Fit Auto 90 day: 38.51 mpg (US) PCX153 - '13 Honda PCX150 90 day: 104.48 mpg (US) 2015 Yamaha R3 - '15 Yamaha R3 90 day: 80.94 mpg (US) Ninja650 - '19 Kawasaki Ninja 650 90 day: 72.57 mpg (US) Thanks: 326 Thanked 1,315 Times in 968 Posts	This discussion is missing the end point of autonomous cars. It's not just a driving aid so that people in their own car can read instead of driving. Driverless ride sharing is the big goal. These cars won't even have any steering wheel or controls and so will be that much cheaper for the fleet to build and buy. Ride sharing is coming at us at full speed. Uber has already disrupted the long standing taxi business. And autonomous cars will displace the Uber driver. Several companies are all pursuing this at a breakneck pace People in rural areas will still want to have their own car for a while but it will get more and more expensive. But most people in large cities, many of whom already don't own a car, will use autonomous ride sharing. And it will be more like a bus service or car pool using 4-6 passenger vehicles where you schedule a ride from a huge database of available cars and it shows up on time with 3 people already in it. You get in. Several blocks or miles down the road toward your destination, someone gets out. A few more blocks on the way, someone else gets in. A few more blocks and you get out. Ect. Like a custom bus route. This is a huge disruption to one of the biggest money making businesses in the world. New car sales from private dealers will go flat even as world population and standard of living continue to rise (until the Great Simplification at the end of oil). And all of these cars will be electric with 1C charge rates. The parking garage empires in large cities will also be disrupted since autonomous ride sharing cars will never be parked unless they need a charge. If the garages are smart they will work to become charge points for hundreds of autonomous cars to remain valid. 30 minutes of charge later a Chevy bolt type van will be ready for another 100 miles of stop and go traffic. And all of these electric cars in fleets will need minimal maintenance. So there goes the dealer service business. Huge disruption. I'm a dealer mechanic. The end of one of the most profitable private business models is approaching. . Robot taxis are already phasing in at several USA cities. It's like an amusement ride at this point but it will push forward to become mainstream much quicker than we would imagine. Major roll outs will start to seek safety certification in 3 years. Chip makers are focusing on vehicle AI as this will be bigger than the gaming indusry. . https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/self-dr...cars/drive-px/ .