Jalopnik asks if self-driving cars will actually happen.

[NeilBlanchard]

The autonomous cars I have seen have about 8 different sensors - that is a LOT of data. It all has to be integrated, to construct an accurate 3-dimensional picture of the world.

Each of those sensors is subject to it's own challenges: weather, obstructions, etc.

The overall picture then has to be interpreted - this will take a STAGGERING amount of computing power. Think of a gaming computer - that is simply displaying a largely canned 3D model. Scanning the space around a moving car is MUCH harder than a state-of-the-art game.

Making sense of all the data - and then "deciding" what is important, or what COULD be important - is a Herculean task.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by NeilBlanchard

The autonomous cars I have seen have about 8 different sensors - that is a LOT of data. It all has to be integrated, to construct an accurate 3-dimensional picture of the world.

Each of those sensors is subject to it's own challenges: weather, obstructions, etc.

The overall picture then has to be interpreted - this will take a STAGGERING amount of computing power. Think of a gaming computer - that is simply displaying a largely canned 3D model. Scanning the space around a moving car is MUCH harder than a state-of-the-art game.

Making sense of all the data - and then "deciding" what is important, or what COULD be important - is a Herculean task.

Yes, which is why Tesla partnered with Nvidia to tackle the computing challenges. There is no limit to the amount of processing power and sensory information that would improve autonomous driving, but there is a certain level that is good enough.

Humans have similar issues with perception/calculation/execution that computers face. The difference is that the car can be augmented with sensors that detect things not detectable by humans, such as infrared and ultrasonic. At first autonomous features will be a supplement to human capabilities, and eventually it will surpass human capabilities. Computers were worse at chess, go, and Jeopardy than human competitors... until they weren't. Likewise, computers will be worse drivers than humans until they are better.

https://electrek.co/2017/08/09/tesla...omous-driving/

[Ecky]

Originally Posted by jamesqf

It's not the driving on any particular trip that makes autonomous non-owned cars (ones that you summon when you need them) inherently inefficient, it's the extra mileage the empty car racks up getting to where you are.

I consider that to be the lesser evil, if it's a small, efficient electric car and you can greatly reduce the total number of vehicles which need to be manufactured.

[NeilBlanchard]

I don't think we will see fully autonomous cars on the road, any time soon.

We will see video mirrors, and a majority of cars with automatic safety systems way before we see autonomous cars.

[freebeard]

The sexbots are a lot closer, too.

[Xist]

How about platonic bots?

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by Xist

How about platonic bots?

You've got enough of the human version of those, don't ya think?

[Xist]

Hey if I had friends (human, android, cyborg, etc.), would I bother you guys so much? Maybe I would have more interesting things to say!

[sendler]

This discussion is missing the end point of autonomous cars. It's not just a driving aid so that people in their own car can read instead of driving. Driverless ride sharing is the big goal. These cars won't even have any steering wheel or controls and so will be that much cheaper for the fleet to build and buy.
Ride sharing is coming at us at full speed. Uber has already disrupted the long standing taxi business. And autonomous cars will displace the Uber driver. Several companies are all pursuing this at a breakneck pace
People in rural areas will still want to have their own car for a while but it will get more and more expensive. But most people in large cities, many of whom already don't own a car, will use autonomous ride sharing.
And it will be more like a bus service or car pool using 4-6 passenger vehicles where you schedule a ride from a huge database of available cars and it shows up on time with 3 people already in it. You get in. Several blocks or miles down the road toward your destination, someone gets out. A few more blocks on the way, someone else gets in. A few more blocks and you get out. Ect. Like a custom bus route.
This is a huge disruption to one of the biggest money making businesses in the world. New car sales from private dealers will go flat even as world population and standard of living continue to rise (until the Great Simplification at the end of oil). And all of these cars will be electric with 1C charge rates.
The parking garage empires in large cities will also be disrupted since autonomous ride sharing cars will never be parked unless they need a charge. If the garages are smart they will work to become charge points for hundreds of autonomous cars to remain valid. 30 minutes of charge later a Chevy bolt type van will be ready for another 100 miles of stop and go traffic.
And all of these electric cars in fleets will need minimal maintenance. So there goes the dealer service business. Huge disruption. I'm a dealer mechanic. The end of one of the most profitable private business models is approaching.
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Robot taxis are already phasing in at several USA cities. It's like an amusement ride at this point but it will push forward to become mainstream much quicker than we would imagine. Major roll outs will start to seek safety certification in 3 years.
Chip makers are focusing on vehicle AI as this will be bigger than the gaming indusry.
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https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/self-dr...cars/drive-px/
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[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Originally Posted by sendler

People in rural areas will still want to have their own car for a while but it will get more and more expensive. But most people in large cities, many of whom already don't own a car, will use autonomous ride sharing.

And maybe those people in rural areas could actually enjoy an autonomous car, as it would make it easier for them to eventually optimize the time they take on their routes.