Quote:
Originally Posted by redpoint5
The problem with any incident is that you cannot say it was caused by climate change, or quantify the increase in severity. It may just be weather.
The only way to begin to evaluate the effects of climate change would be to accurately track weather events and perform a net analysis of regions that have seen increases in frequency/severity vs regions that have seen decreases in frequency/severity.
Even that is difficult, because things like increasing wildfires might be due to having more trees than 100 years ago, or from fire prevention keeping lower intensity burns from clearing out debris periodically until it gets to dangerous levels.
I'm not saying there is no problem from GW, only that it's nearly impossible to attribute any particular event to it, and we're prone to confirmation bias if we believe GW is driving these events.
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Yeah,the climatologists recommend we not confuse 'weather' for 'climate.'
The Black Swan events do get people's attention.
We have recently experienced meteorological events which are unprecedented in recorded history,like the number of Pacific Basin cyclones/typhoons,and Atlantic hurricanes forming where they've never done it before.
It's an interesting movie.