The climate change consensus extends beyond climate scientists

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

When there is a thousand year flood every few years, it's probably not a thousand year flood.
I'm curious as to how flood data was recorded 1000 years ago?
Or is this just another case of pure assumptions and more "make it up as you go along"?
Floods are weather, so weather events are climate now?

The Chinese were recording data 4,000 years ago or so.The Yangtze and Yellow Rivers were a real issue.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

In Roanoke Virginia 1985 there was 6 to 8 inches of rain fall in an afternoon. The weather man said it was a 100 year flood, hasn't been even close to being repeated there since then. In 1985 a lot of people were blaming things like that flood on the hole in the ozone. Just like now with man made global warming.

I remember reading articles about how man made global warming was going to cause drought. It's turning out to be the catch all for any and every unusual weather phenomenon anywhere.

The poles are as much as 15-degrees warmer than the global mean average temp.
Evidently,this affects the Jet Stream,which in turn can cause redistribution of precipitation patterns as it meanders around in Black Swan dynamics; moving high and low pressures around the map.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

The problem with any incident is that you cannot say it was caused by climate change, or quantify the increase in severity. It may just be weather.

The only way to begin to evaluate the effects of climate change would be to accurately track weather events and perform a net analysis of regions that have seen increases in frequency/severity vs regions that have seen decreases in frequency/severity.

Even that is difficult, because things like increasing wildfires might be due to having more trees than 100 years ago, or from fire prevention keeping lower intensity burns from clearing out debris periodically until it gets to dangerous levels.

I'm not saying there is no problem from GW, only that it's nearly impossible to attribute any particular event to it, and we're prone to confirmation bias if we believe GW is driving these events.

Yeah,the climatologists recommend we not confuse 'weather' for 'climate.'
The Black Swan events do get people's attention.
We have recently experienced meteorological events which are unprecedented in recorded history,like the number of Pacific Basin cyclones/typhoons,and Atlantic hurricanes forming where they've never done it before.
It's an interesting movie.

[aerostealth]

https://www.facebook.com/groups/4018...1112780570166/

This video sums up our media coverage relative to global warming.

[freebeard]

The only way to begin to evaluate the effects of climate change would be to accurately track weather events and perform a net analysis of regions that have seen increases in frequency/severity vs regions that have seen decreases in frequency/severity.

They do. Suspicious 0bservers regularly points out that the heat maps are cherry-picked in favor of warming.

GOES 16 shows weather patterns with a one minute refresh rate. We're learning from that end of the scale too.

aerostealth — Anything in that facespook link you'd care to share?

[oil pan 4]

Better that poles be 15 degrees warmer than 15 degrees cooler.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

Better that poles be 15 degrees warmer than 15 degrees cooler.

I don't know.
Right now,the North Pole is 36-degrees F,and the sun isn't up.
There's a lot of methane up there,and as the ice goes the albedo goes ,warming amplifies, which accelerates the methane release, exacerbating the warming,which exacerbates the melting,albedo,ad infinitum.
Melting at Greenland,the Arctic,and Antarctic are exceeding model forecasts.Glaciologists are bewildered.
It's the self-reinforcing feedback loops and non-linear progressions climatologists wig-out over.
Boo-hiss!

[oil pan 4]

It didn't exceeded the "polar ice caps will be melted by 2010" model.

[RedDevil]

Yeah, that one was 15 years off. Can't win them all.

[oil pan 4]

By 2025 we will be well into a grand solar minimum, which will allow more cosmetic rays to infiltrate the earth's crust which will cause more volcanic eruptions, kind of like we see now but worse.
There will be no shortage of polar ice in 2025.