Quote:
Originally Posted by RedDevil
Never mind.
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I'm sorry to see this naive concept of oil being stranded by lack of demand is still so much a part of the conversation. Coal trains were replaced by liquid fueled trains and trucks because they can get much more work done. Liquid fuel earth movers replaced mule teams. Battery powered heavy trucks, earth movers, and farm tractors can get a fraction of the work done of their liquid fueled competitors. Compared to the energy density of batteries, liquid fuel borders on magic. But electric heavy vehicles will indeed be better than nothing when oil gets too remote. Up to the point of being able to build enough batteries for them. Humans are blowing through 400TWh thermal per day! Cut that to 1/3 (completely too optimistic) for efficiency gains if you like. Still leaves 136 TWh per day. 1/3 of this is oil. 45TWh per day. A majority of which is used as liquid fuel. A fleet of batteries and long cords/ electric rails to replace 30TWh per day would be required. And a world fleet of water, wind, and solar to generate 136TWh per day. There are many approaching bottlenecks.
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Human civilization will be much smaller and simpler after the age of fossil fuel. This doesn't have to be terrible if we accept it and move wisely. We're not getting that pony for Christmas that we wanted. But maybe we can get a new bike.