The climate change consensus extends beyond climate scientists

[sendler]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

Never mind.

I'm sorry to see this naive concept of oil being stranded by lack of demand is still so much a part of the conversation. Coal trains were replaced by liquid fueled trains and trucks because they can get much more work done. Liquid fuel earth movers replaced mule teams. Battery powered heavy trucks, earth movers, and farm tractors can get a fraction of the work done of their liquid fueled competitors. Compared to the energy density of batteries, liquid fuel borders on magic. But electric heavy vehicles will indeed be better than nothing when oil gets too remote. Up to the point of being able to build enough batteries for them. Humans are blowing through 400TWh thermal per day! Cut that to 1/3 (completely too optimistic) for efficiency gains if you like. Still leaves 136 TWh per day. 1/3 of this is oil. 45TWh per day. A majority of which is used as liquid fuel. A fleet of batteries and long cords/ electric rails to replace 30TWh per day would be required. And a world fleet of water, wind, and solar to generate 136TWh per day. There are many approaching bottlenecks.
.
Human civilization will be much smaller and simpler after the age of fossil fuel. This doesn't have to be terrible if we accept it and move wisely. We're not getting that pony for Christmas that we wanted. But maybe we can get a new bike.

[RedDevil]

You keep saying the same things and I keep seeing heavy equipment companies investigating, investing in, tooling up for and building electric and hybrid heavy machinery.

Sorry then for my and their naivety. But I'll stop discussing it now. No chance whatever we'd agree.

[sendler]

Humans are blowing through 400TWh thermal per day! Cut that to 1/3 (completely too optimistic) for efficiency gains if you like. Still leaves 136 TWh per day!!! 1/3 of this is oil. 45TWh per day. A majority of which is used as liquid fuel. A fleet of batteries and long cords/ electric rails to replace 30TWh per day would be required. And a world fleet of water, wind, and solar to generate 136TWh per day. There are many approaching bottlenecks.
.
I already took away 2/3 from the current 400 TWh per day that we are blowing through for all efficiency gains from electrification.Which is way more than it could actually be regarding total energy consumption but is used just to dismiss that argument right from the start.And 1/3 again from that to get to just the 45TWh electric replacement from oil which will be leaving us first. So the 45TWh is already as optimistically adjusted as possible. And the real demand for total energy replacement will be the 136TWh per day figure. This is a staggering figure no green energy magazine will ever want you to know about. It doesn't matter what the total insolation or wind energy is. There is no way to build out this much hardware. Fossil fuel has allowed the population and standard of living to balloon far beyond the carrying capacity without it

[freebeard]

Human civilization will be much smaller and simpler after the age of fossil fuel. This doesn't have to be terrible if we accept it and move wisely. We're not getting that pony for Christmas that we wanted. But maybe we can get a new bike.

But I don't want a pony. I want a Shawyer M-drive Art-Deco electric rocket.

There is no way to build out this much hardware. Fossil fuel has allowed the population and standard of living to balloon far beyond the carrying capacity without it

Mitigation would require that those aspiring to a debt and anxiety-ridden Western lifestyle be shown something better.

[Fat Charlie]

But what could be better than debt and anxiety?

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

Our government operates on the premise of "if it ain't broke don't fix it" and if it is broke they form a committee to prolong the problem for as long as possible.

Then they form a subcommittee!

[freebeard]

Researchers discover volcanic heat source under major Antarctic glacier
Surprising find plays critical role in movement, melting of Pine Island Glacier
https://today.uri.edu/news/researchers-discover-volcanic-heat-source-under-major-antarctic-glacier/

From the Suspicious 0bservers space weather report. He also mentioned that last night the lightning unleashed across the midwest and eastern United States was equal to all the electricity consumed in a year.

[sendler]

An average bolt of lightning, striking from cloud to ground, contains roughly one billion (1,000,000,000) joules of energy. This is no small amount, enough to power a 60-watt lightbulb for six months plus a forgotten open door refrigerator for a day. In the forms of electricity, light, heat and thunder, this energy is all released by the flash in a matter of milli- or even microseconds. From here let's consider the practical potential of lightning is as a power source.

The average American household (with its 2.59 inhabitants) consumes 41 billion (4.14*10^10) joules each year. If your house ran on lightning alone, it would have to be struck more than 40 times per year! There are 114 million (1.14*10^8) households in America. Multiply these two numbers, and you have 4.72*10^18 joules of energy per year. Every lightning bolt on Earth in one year, captured perfectly with no loss of energy, would contain about 4*10^17 joules of energy. Thus, all the lightning in the entire world could only power 8% of US households. At best
.
https://www.realclearscience.com/blo...gy-source.html
.

[gone-ot]

So, I should cancel the planned IPA for my "Ben Franklin Home Lightning-Power" kit company (wink)?

[aerohead]

'been screening materials I have on hand.The following organizations which are researching the photosphere,chromosphere,solar wind,heliosphere,space weather intersteller cosmic rays/galactic cosmic rays/Galactic atomic nuclei/ionized plasma waves,corotating interaction regions,coronal mass ejections,intersteller plasma,sun-spot cycles,etc.,have been mentioned in the literature:
*NASA Ames Research Center,Palo Alto,California,USA
*Jet Propulsion Laboratory,Cal Tech,Pomona,California,USA
*Space Science Dept.,European Space Agency,European Space Technology Center
*The Blackett Lab.,Imperial College,London,UK
*AT&T Bell Labs.,New Jersey,USA
*Dept. of Physics,University of Kansas,Livermore,Kansas,USA
*Applied Physics Lab.,John Hopkins University
*University of Birmingham,Birmingham,UK
*Space Science Lab.,University of California,Berkeley,California,USA
*Observatoire de Paris,Meudon,France
*University of Thrace,Xanthi,Greece
*Max-Planck-Institut f'u'r Aeronomie,Katlenburg-Lindau,Germany
*The Aerospace Corporation,Space Science Lab.,Los Angeles,California,USA
*Max-Planck-Institut f'u'r Kernphysik,Heidelberg,Germany
*University of Florida,Gainesville,Florida,USA
*Lindblad,Lund Observatory,Lund,Sweden
*University of Kent,Canterbury,UK
*Max-Planck-Institut f'u'r Extraterrestrische Physik,Garching,Germany
*European Space Technology Center,AG,Noordwijk,Netherlands
*NASA Johnson Space Center,Houston,Texas,USA
*Enrico Fermi Institute,University of Chicago,Chicago,Illinois,USA
*Herzberg Institute for Astrophysics,National Research Council of Canada,Ottawa,Canada
*Centre d'Etudes Nucle'aires de Saclay,Service d' Astrophysique,Cedex,France
*Institut f'u'r Reine und Angewandte Kernphysik,Universtat Kiel,Kiel,Germany
*Instituto di Fisica Cosmica,CNR,University di Milano,Milano,Italy
*University of Arizona
*University of Florence,Florence,Italy
*Lockheed,Palo Alto Research Lab.,Palo Alto,California,USA
*University of Chicago neutron monitor,Haleakala,Maui,Hawaii,USA
*NASA Goddard Space Flight Center,Greenbelt,Maryland,USA
*School of Physics and Astronomy,University of Minnesota,Minneapolis,MN,USA
*Hughes STX,Lanham,Maryland,USA
*Centre des Etudes Terrestres et Planetaires,Velizy,France
*Dept. of Astronomy,University of Maryland,College Park,MD,USA
*Space and Atmospheric Sciences Group,Los Alamos National Laboratory,Los Alamos,New Mexico,USA
*Dept. of Physics,West Virginia University,Morgantown,WV,USA
*NASA Space Science Lab.,Marshall Space Flight Center,Huntsville,Alabama,USA
*Physikalisches Institut,University of Bern,Bern,Switzerland
*Dept. of Atmospheric,Oceanic and Space Sciences,University of Michigan,Ann Arbor,Michigan,USA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
*The Sun's magnetized plasma solar wind extends out about 100-Astronomical Units (AU) to create the 'helioshere'.
*Intersteller/Galactic cosmic rays can enter the heliosphere directly,but are strongly influenced by solar wind magnetic fields.
*On Earth,we would only be concerned with the behavior of the heliosphere associated along the sun's ecliptic path.
*Galactic atomic nuclei,accelerated to relativistic speeds in distant cataclysmic events also enter the heliosphere,but are also strongly influenced by the solar winds magnetic fields.
*Ecliptic solar wind velocity is about 400-kilometers/second.
*Solar spin is about 26-Earth days.
*The solar sun-spot cycle is 11-years.
*Cosmic rays have energies of 0.3-to-600 Million electron volts (MeV) per nucleon.
*Cosmic rays have 4-to-2000 MeV per electron
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
*cosmic ray bombardment (or not) on Earth will be affected by Earth's magnetosphere.(a separate post)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
*So far,as of 1998,with respect to either volcanic or earthquake triggering mechanisms,there has been no mention in the peer-reviewed literature,of corroborated, causal relationships between cosmic ray,or solar irradiance effects.
*At some point I'll have some time to look at the online reporting.