[RedDevil]

Bloomberg made adaptations to their model 3 production tracker... I still don't get their weekly stats, but at least the projection does no longer look outlandish.

For example, our weekly estimates surged above 6,000 in August after Tesla registered a record number of VINs with U.S. safety regulators. Those estimates proved far too high after Tesla essentially halted new registrations by mid-August. Our model compensated with crashing weekly estimates in the second half of the quarter. We were wrong in both cases, but over the course of the quarter it evened out into an accurate forecast, just as it has in the past.

By switching to a 13-week trailing estimate, we will eliminate some of the erratic swings that result from the imperfect datasets we have at our disposal. You’ll still be able to see on the weekly rate chart where our model is tracking, but we’ll be more focused on the trailing average to avoid reader confusion.

This should also address concerns by some on social media that Tesla could be “gaming” our model, by over-registering VINs or skipping groups of VINs that it deploys when building cars, to appear strong during periods when the company is particularly vulnerable. We’ve never ascribed much value to these theories, but the worry should nonetheless be mitigated by switching to a trailing average that stretches over an entire quarter.

The change may cause some short-term confusion, as our estimate for weekly production suddenly changes from 1,845 to 4,201 using the same model. However, the only thing that's changing is the display; it's the same model as before with the same long-term results. We're just smoothing out the peaks and valleys.

So... Yeah. Good on them to set it right.