Tesla Model 3

[NeilBlanchard]

The Tesla Model 3 is already the 5th best selling car in the US.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news...itability-goal

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-...ord-september/

After the standard battery version comes out, there are folks who think it will be the BEST selling car in the US.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

Some at Bloomberg are so convinced Tesla will ultimately fail that they've become blind for data that say the opposite.

3rd quarter numbers:

Bloomberg said:
The Model 3 tracker currently projects that Tesla will finish the quarter making 53,457 Model 3s

Teslarati said:
During the third quarter, Tesla produced a total of 80,142 electric cars, 50% more than the company’s prior all-time high in Q2 2018. Tesla produced 53,239 Model 3, as well as 26,903 Model S and X vehicles.

So they differ by 218 cars and both are guesses. Why are you so down on Bloomberg?

Originally Posted by RedDevil

That's the end of Q1 2019 at the latest.

That is some VERY glass-half-full thinking. The opposing view from the same stats:

Tesla adding battery capacity - They are going to make more long range cars with larger battery packs.

Tesla installing equipment to make modules cheaper - They want to make money on the cars they are selling

Tesla making more motors - They are going to increase sales of AWD cars with 2 motors.

Telsa hasn't changed availability window - This is a bad sign. If the $35K base version of the Model 3 was 3-6 months away 3 months ago it should be 0-3 months away.

Musk said 1Q 2019 - Musk ALWAYS overpromises

Even if Tesla starts delivery $35K versions of the Model 3 in 2019 that means the buyers will pay more for the car then when they ordered it as the Federal tax credit cuts in half 1Q 2019 and goes away completely 3Q 2019.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by NeilBlanchard

After the standard battery version comes out, there are folks who think it will be the BEST selling car in the US.

How much more production would that require? They are already full steam ahead, and with that effort got 5th place.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

How much more production would that require? They are already full steam ahead, and with that effort got 5th place.

5th place for Cars / 18th place for vehicles

In August:
Tesla sold 17,800 Model 3's (unconfirmed guess)
Toyota sold 30,141 Camry's
Toyota sold 42,222 RAV4's
Ford sold 81,839 F150's

[redpoint5]

Yeah, so Tesla would have to double production volume to reach Camry levels, which isn't going to happen. The bottleneck isn't demand for $35k Teslas, it's actually supply, and probably will be that way through next year too even as federal credits expire. Global sales will pick up the waning domestic sales and probably keep the line running near full capacity for the next 2 years or so, and by then the next model will be out, starting the demand cycle all over again.

[RedDevil]

Originally Posted by JSH

3rd quarter numbers:

Bloomberg said:
The Model 3 tracker currently projects that Tesla will finish the quarter making 53,457 Model 3s

Teslarati said:
During the third quarter, Tesla produced a total of 80,142 electric cars, 50% more than the company’s prior all-time high in Q2 2018. Tesla produced 53,239 Model 3, as well as 26,903 Model S and X vehicles.

So they differ by 218 cars and both are guesses. Why are you so down on Bloomberg?

Bloomberg moved the past production week totals UP beyond the fact (they were just above 5000 a week earlier) and now magically production came down to below 2000 a week. Do you believe Tesla made 6000 cars a week a month back and less than a third of that now? That would be weird?

Originally Posted by JSH

That is some VERY glass-half-full thinking. The opposing view from the same stats:

Tesla adding battery capacity - They are going to make more long range cars with larger battery packs.

Tesla installing equipment to make modules cheaper - They want to make money on the cars they are selling

Tesla making more motors - They are going to increase sales of AWD cars with 2 motors.

Telsa hasn't changed availability window - This is a bad sign. If the $35K base version of the Model 3 was 3-6 months away 3 months ago it should be 0-3 months away.

Musk said 1Q 2019 - Musk ALWAYS overpromises

Even if Tesla starts delivery $35K versions of the Model 3 in 2019 that means the buyers will pay more for the car then when they ordered it as the Federal tax credit cuts in half 1Q 2019 and goes away completely 3Q 2019.

No, the availability window did not move means it still is on the first quarter of 2019. It stopped moving further away. It was Q1, and still is.
The extra machines are there to produce different sized packs. Standard battery, available in 3-6 months, as Tesla promises? Why not?
Cheaper batteries are ESSENTIAL for a $35,000 Model 3. Though battery cost has come down considerably already. And Tesla will sell more D models, but it won't be their mainstay. More motors do mean more cars.

We'll see. At least the Model 3 now is produced in numbers, almost double that of the other models combined.

[redpoint5]

I've shared this elsewhere, but might be relevant to the discussion:

Originally Posted by shotel

Wouldn't the next logical step to some sustained production be the fabled $35K TM3? Sold at a profit?

We previously discussed this:

https://www.chevybolt.org/forum/9-20...tml#post429799

Originally Posted by XJ12

https://jalopnik.com/engineering-fir...-li-1827632866

Model 3 has 30% margin on $55,000 car. So if you have zero margin you get a $38,500 car or one nearly Bolt equivalent.

Originally Posted by redpoint5

That seems to explain why the $35k model might be difficult to squeeze a profit out of.

... so the long range battery is 75 kWh, and the standard is 50 kWh; a difference of 25 kWh. Tesla's cost for those 25 extra kWh is about $4750. That alone would make the base Tesla just about break even on cost.

So from the best estimates I've seen yet, Tesla might have a $1,000 margin for a base Model 3 now. Only a 3% margin, but it's not negative.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

Bloomberg moved the past production week totals UP beyond the fact (they were just above 5000 a week earlier) and now magically production came down to below 2000 a week. Do you believe Tesla made 6000 cars a week a month back and less than a third of that now? That would be weird?

It would be weird if Tesla was running a normal factory operation but they aren't. They are working people 12 hours a day, running the plant around the clock 7 days a week and making cars in a tent to hit the goal of making 50,000 cars in a quarter. It would make a LOT of sense to give their workers a break once that goal was met. They also need to schedule downtime to install factory equipment.

Originally Posted by RedDevil

Standard battery, available in 3-6 months, as Tesla promises? Why not?

Why not? Tesla has a history dating back to their founding of not delivering what they promise. That is why not.

[RedDevil]

For Q3 they finally did deliver what they promised. Yes, they should have done that in previous quarters too. But now things are falling into place.
They are producing cars in largish numbers, they are now gradually scaling up instead of expanding explosively. There is no reason to assume things will go horribly wrong. Even if it did at times when they were ironing out the process.

[RedDevil]

Bloomberg made adaptations to their model 3 production tracker... I still don't get their weekly stats, but at least the projection does no longer look outlandish.

For example, our weekly estimates surged above 6,000 in August after Tesla registered a record number of VINs with U.S. safety regulators. Those estimates proved far too high after Tesla essentially halted new registrations by mid-August. Our model compensated with crashing weekly estimates in the second half of the quarter. We were wrong in both cases, but over the course of the quarter it evened out into an accurate forecast, just as it has in the past.

By switching to a 13-week trailing estimate, we will eliminate some of the erratic swings that result from the imperfect datasets we have at our disposal. You’ll still be able to see on the weekly rate chart where our model is tracking, but we’ll be more focused on the trailing average to avoid reader confusion.

This should also address concerns by some on social media that Tesla could be “gaming” our model, by over-registering VINs or skipping groups of VINs that it deploys when building cars, to appear strong during periods when the company is particularly vulnerable. We’ve never ascribed much value to these theories, but the worry should nonetheless be mitigated by switching to a trailing average that stretches over an entire quarter.

The change may cause some short-term confusion, as our estimate for weekly production suddenly changes from 1,845 to 4,201 using the same model. However, the only thing that's changing is the display; it's the same model as before with the same long-term results. We're just smoothing out the peaks and valleys.

So... Yeah. Good on them to set it right.