Quote:
Originally Posted by Snax
I think these guys cite a pretty decent analysis of the future. Adoption rates are still on the upswing for EVs and will definitely eclipse ICE sales in the next 5-10 years. 2025 seems like a spot-on tipping point from this.
https://youtu.be/aUC6lsLr04I |
I enjoyed the video, but EV sales have no chance of eclipsing ICE sales 5 years, and a snowballs chance in 10. 5 years means the models currently in development now would be outselling ICE vehicles. Today's technology doesn't offer a solution to problems such as slow recharging, expensive batteries, and short range, such that in 5 years people will prefer them over ICE vehicles. In 10 years, we'd only be 1 more generation of EV ahead as the one currently in development. There's simply no way that we're 1 EV generation away from from technology sufficiently compelling to move the majority of people away from ICE vehicles.
One problem with the video is they first showed a graph of EV adoption, which resembled the slow technology adoption rate graphs they were previously showing, then they brought out an S curve "prediction" from nowhere, explained nothing about where it came from, and then started explaining the implications of that fantasy reality.
Everything they said makes perfect sense to me, so long as that S curve is explainable. Problem is, that graph isn't real, and it doesn't take into account things like people not owning homes that can accommodate charging a car, or the fact that there's no magic bullet to solve the expense, range, and slow recharging issues.
There will be an S curve, but not within 10 years. I'll optimistically say 20, which is only 3 EV generations away. Consider that we're in the 2nd EV generation since the original Leaf in 2011, and a couple years away from the 3rd. Has that much really changed in that time; enough so that we should expect the death of ICE soon?