EV Price Discussion

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

2013 Leafs are going for $7,500 on CL.

I have a theory that prices might increase for used EVs in the next 1 or 2 years. As one article pointed out, there was a state that had something like a $5k tax rebate for purchasing an EV. When that incentive went away, EV sales plummeted to almost nothing.

Federal tax incentives phase out at 200k cars sold per manufacturer. I would be surprised if the current administration extends this. As incentives dry up, I expect new EV sales to plummet nationwide.

When new EVs suddenly cost $7,500 more, people will have less incentive to buy. This will also result in less used cars being available. With a diminishing supply of used cars and the increased price for new, this should raise the price of existing EVs.

I think I'll time my used car purchase around the time that GM cars run out of tax credits.

CAR and DRIVER did an article last year or 2017.They believe that by 2025,ICE vehicles will cost more than EVs and will be eclipsed in sales.
Internal combustion has been banned in the near future in some countries.
Some analysts believe EV range will grow as price declines and once the neighbors start to see them on their block,the psychological switch will flip,and all of a sudden it will be 'okay' to drive electric.
Rolls-Royce is leap-frogging hybrids and going directly to EV within a decade.
There'll be no point in a McLAREN,Lamborghini,Ferrari,etc. after The Tesla Roadster-II comes on the market.They won't be able to compete in car,performance or range,and especially not in price.

[redpoint5]

It seems inevitable to me that EVs will eventually be more economical and higher performing that ICE vehicles. That said, we're probably more like 10 years away from hitting that point, and 20 years away from EVs taking a larger market share than ICE.

I've been wrong about all my technology predictions before though (overly optimistic), and I'd like be found to be overly pessimistic on this one.

[Snax]

I think these guys cite a pretty decent analysis of the future. Adoption rates are still on the upswing for EVs and will definitely eclipse ICE sales in the next 5-10 years. 2025 seems like a spot-on tipping point from this.

https://youtu.be/aUC6lsLr04I

[oil pan 4]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Whoops, missed a couple check boxes for the '16 and '17. Gives a pretty good trend though, and all of the EVs I checked had similar trends.

There's something funny going on with regard to demand being higher for used EVs now. I was planning to buy one this year, but whenever I feel uncertain, my default is to hold off.

I'd probably be willing to pay $15,000 for a used Bolt, but we're a very long way off from them reaching that price if this trend continues.

I found another perfect 2011 leaf on ebay, it's blue and has a 2016 battery, chademo, all the options and range for $7,000.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by Snax

I think these guys cite a pretty decent analysis of the future. Adoption rates are still on the upswing for EVs and will definitely eclipse ICE sales in the next 5-10 years. 2025 seems like a spot-on tipping point from this.

https://youtu.be/aUC6lsLr04I

I enjoyed the video, but EV sales have no chance of eclipsing ICE sales 5 years, and a snowballs chance in 10. 5 years means the models currently in development now would be outselling ICE vehicles. Today's technology doesn't offer a solution to problems such as slow recharging, expensive batteries, and short range, such that in 5 years people will prefer them over ICE vehicles. In 10 years, we'd only be 1 more generation of EV ahead as the one currently in development. There's simply no way that we're 1 EV generation away from from technology sufficiently compelling to move the majority of people away from ICE vehicles.

One problem with the video is they first showed a graph of EV adoption, which resembled the slow technology adoption rate graphs they were previously showing, then they brought out an S curve "prediction" from nowhere, explained nothing about where it came from, and then started explaining the implications of that fantasy reality.

Everything they said makes perfect sense to me, so long as that S curve is explainable. Problem is, that graph isn't real, and it doesn't take into account things like people not owning homes that can accommodate charging a car, or the fact that there's no magic bullet to solve the expense, range, and slow recharging issues.

There will be an S curve, but not within 10 years. I'll optimistically say 20, which is only 3 EV generations away. Consider that we're in the 2nd EV generation since the original Leaf in 2011, and a couple years away from the 3rd. Has that much really changed in that time; enough so that we should expect the death of ICE soon?

[Snax]

Your points are valid, but they fail to address that people are increasingly beginning to recognize that they don't need the kind of range that their ICE vehicles provide, and the rarity that their need to travel so far as to need a recharge along the way is statistically insignificant for most.

How many times do most people exceed 200 miles worth of travel in a single day during the year? And in those cases, how many people might consider that perhaps they could just plan ahead about charging during the trip?

We have to stop to eat, for relief, for other reasons. As fast charges become more ubiquitous (we aren't even close to that right now however), it will significantly reduce the psychological barrier to longer distance travel.

I have used my range extender zero times to that end. In the 6 weeks I have owned my i3, it's sole REx purpose has been to dispose of some gas I have had stored in the garage for the last 6 months.

I think from the video what they fail to address head on however is the reality is that there will always be a need for ICE vehicles for some. That for a slice of the population, EVs will simply never be practical given the reasons you cite. But I also believe that is not the majority, and more people are realizing that quickly. After all, how can one balk at an EV that can go 150-200 miles on a charge when people like me are getting around just fine day after day without issues on a range of half that?

The writing is on the wall. The largest barrier has been price, but we are approaching parity with that. Even with tax incentives going away, costs are dropping and will continue to follow the typical used market curve of ICE cars - driving interest in the purchase of new vehicles along the way.

Clearly, we will have to wait and see on that, and ICE cars will outnumber EVs on the road for long beyond the 5-year mark. But like anything new, once people accept that it will suit their needs, the old way of doing things can become perceived as inferior and drive the new market forward.

The number one thing I like about my i3 is never having to stop for gas. It takes 30 seconds of my time to plug in at home - and even a 110V charger would handily meet my overnight needs if I regularly traveled further than my typical 10-20 miles in a day. Why would I consider anything else for the daily commute on that point alone?

[redpoint5]

Back in 2008 I purchased an Intel x-25m 80GB solid state drive. It cost like $200, but I proclaimed that the majority of hard drives sold to consumers in 2 years would be SSD. It's now 2019, and SSD are still not the most commonly sold storage drive. Next year it's projected to finally eclipse spinning disks.

The only weakness of SSD is price and storage capacity; similar to the problem of EVs. It's better in every other way by a long shot.

There's other problems I didn't mention, such as the fact that 240 mile range EVs get more like 150 miles of range in the winter.

Losing the $7,500 tax credit will be a huge blow, because costs are not coming down that quickly. There's no reason to expect a $15,000 battery to be only $7,500 in 5 years time. There's not a 50% cost reduction to be found in that process.

Finally, current EV sales are like 1% of all sales. You're telling me to expect it to be 50% or more within 5 years? A fifty fold increase in just 5 years?

[Piotrsko]

For social scientists, 1% isn't a real number for study purposes. BUT say 1% wants an electric car. They made 17 some million vehicles last year so that indicates a demand of 170,000 which I believe wasn't met last year. 2 percent doubles that. A standard deviation is ~6 percent more or less. THAT is what should be a target.

Btw I suck at basic math.

[thingstodo]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

I enjoyed the video, but EV sales have no chance of eclipsing ICE sales 5 years, and a snowballs chance in 10.

... snip ...

One problem with the video is they first showed a graph of EV adoption, which resembled the slow technology adoption rate graphs they were previously showing, then they brought out an S curve "prediction" from nowhere, explained nothing about where it came from, and then started explaining the implications of that fantasy reality.

I have not checked the numbers. So I don't have an opinion on the details of the S curve

I have been involved in projects where the first 2% of the S curve was used to predict the 'rest' of the project. The numbers were, not surprisingly, under-estimated. But they were within about 30%.

And an S curve for adopting technology is pretty well-accepted.

So I think the only discussion point is whether the data for the first 2% of data available is being properly projected. I would have to see the source data and run the numbers myself. What is shown on the video seems optimistic ... but I would believe parity in 2028 instead of 2025.

Just my opinion though.

[redpoint5]

As the video showed, there's different S curve rates. Color TVs adopted at a much slower rate because there was a suitable alternative.

We have suitable alternatives to EVs, and they're normal ICE vehicles.

The number of variables are so vast that predicting adoption based on innovators (those that are before early adopters, as we aren't even to that stage yet), is guaranteed to be inaccurate.