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Back in 2008 I purchased an Intel x-25m 80GB solid state drive. It cost like $200, but I proclaimed that the majority of hard drives sold to consumers in 2 years would be SSD. It's now 2019, and SSD are still not the most commonly sold storage drive. Next year it's projected to finally eclipse spinning disks.
The only weakness of SSD is price and storage capacity; similar to the problem of EVs. It's better in every other way by a long shot.
There's other problems I didn't mention, such as the fact that 240 mile range EVs get more like 150 miles of range in the winter.
Losing the $7,500 tax credit will be a huge blow, because costs are not coming down that quickly. There's no reason to expect a $15,000 battery to be only $7,500 in 5 years time. There's not a 50% cost reduction to be found in that process.
Finally, current EV sales are like 1% of all sales. You're telling me to expect it to be 50% or more within 5 years? A fifty fold increase in just 5 years?
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