Quote:
Originally Posted by redpoint5
I enjoyed the video, but EV sales have no chance of eclipsing ICE sales 5 years, and a snowballs chance in 10.
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One problem with the video is they first showed a graph of EV adoption, which resembled the slow technology adoption rate graphs they were previously showing, then they brought out an S curve "prediction" from nowhere, explained nothing about where it came from, and then started explaining the implications of that fantasy reality.
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I have not checked the numbers. So I don't have an opinion on the details of the S curve
I have been involved in projects where the first 2% of the S curve was used to predict the 'rest' of the project. The numbers were, not surprisingly, under-estimated. But they were within about 30%.
And an S curve for adopting technology is pretty well-accepted.
So I think the only discussion point is whether the data for the first 2% of data available is being properly projected. I would have to see the source data and run the numbers myself. What is shown on the video seems optimistic ... but I would believe parity in 2028 instead of 2025.
Just my opinion though.