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Old 02-01-2019, 09:39 AM   #109 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by RedDevil View Post
But as the infrastructure grows that will change. In Norway full EVs already outsell hybrids (plugin and non-plugin combined) substantially, and the expectation is that over time hybrids will disappear from their market entirely.

And as you mentioned California...
It is happening there too, right now. And that article is dated before the Model 3 sales skyrocketed:

If EV sales keep about doubling every year, within 3 years the rest of the USA will be where California is now.
Norway is completely different than the USA. Their experience isn't relevant to the USA.

I have a different take on hybrids. I expect over the next decade almost every ICE to become a hybrid. At the same time EV sales will continue to grow at a steady but limited rate. I say this because this is what auto manufacturers are saying they are going to do. Today they are designing the cars they will sell mid-decade.

My numbers above come from the green tech Media article you linked. However, you have to fix their numbers as they are mislabeling hybrids as EVs.
3.3% of car sales were electric vehicles
2.9% of car sales were plug in hybrids
4.0% of car sales were conventional hybrids.

EV sales won't double every year in the USA. There isn't enough EV manufacturing capacity to allow that.
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