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Old 02-01-2019, 09:39 AM   #109 (permalink)
JSH
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RedDevil View Post
But as the infrastructure grows that will change. In Norway full EVs already outsell hybrids (plugin and non-plugin combined) substantially, and the expectation is that over time hybrids will disappear from their market entirely.

And as you mentioned California...
https://www.greentechmedia.com/artic...-sales-decline
It is happening there too, right now. And that article is dated before the Model 3 sales skyrocketed:

If EV sales keep about doubling every year, within 3 years the rest of the USA will be where California is now.
Norway is completely different than the USA. Their experience isn't relevant to the USA.

I have a different take on hybrids. I expect over the next decade almost every ICE to become a hybrid. At the same time EV sales will continue to grow at a steady but limited rate. I say this because this is what auto manufacturers are saying they are going to do. Today they are designing the cars they will sell mid-decade.

My numbers above come from the green tech Media article you linked. However, you have to fix their numbers as they are mislabeling hybrids as EVs.
3.3% of car sales were electric vehicles
2.9% of car sales were plug in hybrids
4.0% of car sales were conventional hybrids.

EV sales won't double every year in the USA. There isn't enough EV manufacturing capacity to allow that.
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