EV Price Discussion

[RedDevil]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Why would a shop provide charging infrastructure, and who would use it? I would charge my car at home where electricity is cheap and my schedule isn't dictated by the rate at which my battery charges. Some shops offer charging to boost their environmental image, but it's mostly a gimmick. Same with businesses that provide charging perks to their employees.

That's as some EV owners rent a house or cannot charge their car at home for other practical reasons. If you can charge at work there's no need to charge at home.

We have a fleet of leased Leafs at work. As the lease runs for 3 years and includes free charging at work while home charger installation isn't free, most of our lease Leaf drivers don't have a charging point at home.

Home charging adds a lot of practicality to an EV, but with a dense charging infrastructure it is no longer essential.

[ldjessee00]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

We have a fleet of leased Leafs at work. As the lease runs for 3 years and includes free charging at work while home charger installation isn't free, most of our lease Leaf drivers don't have a charging point at home.

Actually I have not installed a charger at home (just plug in the slow charger at home), because work has a charger. I have thought about it and we might do it eventually, but for now the slow charger and the charger at work have me more than covered.

[Snax]

My Level 1 charger tops out at 12A (1.4kW), and it is plenty for my use, topping off overnight, and good for a full charge in 14-16 hours. Most days I don't even plug it in.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by JSH

There is a tipping point where enough EVs are on the road that it makes sense to try to attract those customers to your business. More and more chargers are popping up around Portland and it isn't just for a green image. The most recently built hotel in Hillsboro has 6 chargers. That is an incentive for EV owners to stay at their hotel. Likewise chargers are showing up at newly build condos and apartments because that will attract EV owners (which for the most part are high-income renters you want to attract) The electricity used is peanuts compared to rents that are $2K plus a month.

I would say the US West Coast (California, Oregon, Washington) is getting close to that tipping point where you could own an EV and travel within those states without fear of running out of juice. The interior of the country is way behind and will take years or maybe decades to catch up.

Sure, it makes sense for hotels to provide EVSEs. In fact, that's among the best places for a business to offer one because the infrastructure is so cheap for L2 chargers, and people spend a lot of time parked at hotels.

It doesn't make sense for most other shops though, which is what RedDevil was talking about, and which I was responding to.

The main problem to EV adoption isn't lack of DCFC infrastructure; it's the many severe limitations of current battery technology, which I'm repeatedly talking about, and which nobody has objected to.

I'll never take an EV on a long road trip because I'm not willing to spend an hour charging every 150 miles. I'm also not willing to spend the money necessary to purchase an EV that has a huge battery with long range. That defeats the advantage and purpose of an EV, which is for local driving needs.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

It doesn't make sense for most other shops though, which is what RedDevil was talking about, and which I was responding to.

It makes sense in RedDevil's world where 1/3 of new cars sales are EVs. It is starting to makes sense in certain parts of the USA with high EV adoption rates. It doesn't make much sense at all in most of the USA.

Originally Posted by redpoint5

The main problem to EV adoption isn't lack of DCFC infrastructure; it's the many severe limitations of current battery technology, which I'm repeatedly talking about, and which nobody has objected to.

I'll never take an EV on a long road trip because I'm not willing to spend an hour charging every 150 miles. I'm also not willing to spend the money necessary to purchase an EV that has a huge battery with long range. That defeats the advantage and purpose of an EV, which is for local driving needs.

I agree that lack of DCFC infrastructure is not the problem preventing EV adoption, however, I disagree that battery performance is the problem. Current EV batteries work just fine. 200 to 300 miles of range is more than enough. There are two problems preventing more widespread EV adoption:
1. Price
2. Lack of personal experience driving an EV.

Price is the big one. The Chevy Bolt is a great car. However, I'm not going to pay $37K for a compact car when I can get a standard VW Golf $22K or a GTI for $27K.

The EV driving experience is better than gas in almost every way. (Aside from being able to take spontaneous long trips). As more people experience driving an EV more people will find this out. The lack of maintenance and convenience of charging at home is also great. Again, as more people experience it more people will buy EVs. OEMs can help this adoption rate by refusing to make slow EVs. There is no reason for it, you can have performance AND efficiency in an EV.

Fix the price issue and people will buy EVs because they are better cars. They will drive them around town and charge them at home. When they need to go farther then the range allows they will drive their other car.

[Snax]

All of which explains why the gas range extended version has outsold the battery only version of the i3 in the US.

Being dual-fuel tackles the range limitation anxiety and inconvenience well for longer trips. It's still not a great experience to have to refill the tiny gas tank every 60-80 miles, but filled at a station along with a 2 gallon can stuffed in the frunk, one can easily go up 120-160 miles at a time between services on gas alone. Start with a full charge and that becomes 180-240 miles with one quick refill from the frunk can. In my book, that's 3-5 hours of driving anyway and time to take a break - hopefully at a DCFC / gas combo station for the next leg of travel. Working that backward, that is 360-480 miles or so on just 3 stops totaling less than an hour of waiting (assuming a switch to slower level 2 to get to 100% charge after the DCFC slows at 80%).

Remembering when I had a wife and the kids were young, I'd be ecstatic if I could drive that far on just 3 stops!

[JSH]

Originally Posted by Snax

All of which explains why the gas range extended version has outsold the battery only version of the i3 in the US.

Hybrids have always outsold EVs. Even in California (the state with the highest sales of EVs) hybrids have double the sales of EVs. (EVs 3.3% / hybrids 6.9%)

[RedDevil]

Originally Posted by JSH

Hybrids have always outsold EVs. Even in California (the state with the highest sales of EVs) hybrids have double the sales of EVs. (EVs 3.3% / hybrids 6.9%)

But as the infrastructure grows that will change. In Norway full EVs already outsell hybrids (plugin and non-plugin combined) substantially, and the expectation is that over time hybrids will disappear from their market entirely.

And as you mentioned California...
https://www.greentechmedia.com/artic...-sales-decline
It is happening there too, right now. And that article is dated before the Model 3 sales skyrocketed:
https://insideevs.com/californias-ev-sales-surge-tesla-model-3/


If EV sales keep about doubling every year, within 3 years the rest of the USA will be where California is now.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

But as the infrastructure grows that will change. In Norway full EVs already outsell hybrids (plugin and non-plugin combined) substantially, and the expectation is that over time hybrids will disappear from their market entirely.

And as you mentioned California...
https://www.greentechmedia.com/artic...-sales-decline
It is happening there too, right now. And that article is dated before the Model 3 sales skyrocketed:

If EV sales keep about doubling every year, within 3 years the rest of the USA will be where California is now.

Norway is completely different than the USA. Their experience isn't relevant to the USA.

I have a different take on hybrids. I expect over the next decade almost every ICE to become a hybrid. At the same time EV sales will continue to grow at a steady but limited rate. I say this because this is what auto manufacturers are saying they are going to do. Today they are designing the cars they will sell mid-decade.

My numbers above come from the green tech Media article you linked. However, you have to fix their numbers as they are mislabeling hybrids as EVs.
3.3% of car sales were electric vehicles
2.9% of car sales were plug in hybrids
4.0% of car sales were conventional hybrids.

EV sales won't double every year in the USA. There isn't enough EV manufacturing capacity to allow that.

[RedDevil]

Originally Posted by JSH

Norway is completely different than the USA. Their experience isn't relevant to the USA.

I have a different take on hybrids. I expect over the next decade almost every ICE to become a hybrid. At the same time EV sales will continue to grow at a steady but limited rate. I say this because this is what auto manufacturers are saying they are going to do. Today they are designing the cars they will sell mid-decade.

My numbers above come from the green tech Media article you linked. However, you have to fix their numbers as they are mislabeling hybrids as EVs.
3.3% of car sales were electric vehicles
2.9% of car sales were plug in hybrids
4.0% of car sales were conventional hybrids.

EV sales won't double every year in the USA. There isn't enough EV manufacturing capacity to allow that.

I think you have to reveal the source of your numbers, because I don't think that's correct.

I have a second source that splits sales of plugin vehicles by type: EV-Volumes - The Electric Vehicle World Sales Database
and guess what, Tesla outsells all other plugin vehicles (BEV and plugin hybrid) taken together:

The Model 3 alone outsold all PHEVs taken together...

Tesla makes its own batteries and has more than tripled its production capacity last year. If they can do that, why can't other auto makers?