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Believe I've gotten to the bottom of my issues - looks like the 12v lithium is gradually dying over the course of a few weeks, and I don't notice it until the voltage drops very sharply near zero charge as the caps still have plenty of starting current. It's losing more charge while the car is sitting between drives than it's getting back while driving. I'm unsure if the balance circuit(s) are primarily responsible but I'm thinking removing the resistor between battery and caps will let it get fully charged on my short commute. I'll investigate the balance circuits this weekend.
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