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Originally Posted by JSH
The Semi will share almost nothing with any of the Tesla's current vehicles so they are starting from scratch. Even low volume production will be very expensive to tool up.
The Roadster is low volume but that doesn't make the tools any less expensive. A stamping tool is a stamping tool. (Unless we are talking soft tooling that will only run hundreds of parts). Tooling the body in white and interior panels will cost the same as a high-volume car.
The Model Y does share a large percentage of parts with the Model 3 but that includes things like nuts and bolts. The most expensive parts like body panels will be unique.
Tesla will need to kick off long-lead-time tooling at least 1 year before production so for 2020 production those tools need to be kicked off this year. Industry standards is 30% upfront for design / 30% to order materials and start building the tool.
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It'll be expensive, but I don't think it has to break the bank. A quick search suggests the Y will be between $200 million and $600 million for tooling. Apparently lower volume tooling can also be less expensive with the trade-off of being less durable, but I couldn't find anything on how much less.
https://www.quora.com/How-much-do-ca...to-manufacture
All things considered, I'm not sure how much the lines and tooling for the Y, Roadster, and Semi will cost, but Tesla has experience being involved in construction and can do at least some stuff in house. For instance one of their first acquisitions they made was a tool-and-die maker, so I wouldn't be surprised if they have some advantages in tooling costs.
https://phys.org/news/2015-05-tesla-...g-company.html
Tesla also seems fairly involved in construction and acts as their own contractor for the Gigafactory, which can be helpful.
https://www.buildzoom.com/blog/tesla...construction-2