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Old 07-19-2019, 07:07 AM   #6210 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by oil pan 4 View Post
Whatever. I have been hearing the same dooms day crap for 25 years and we always have, 5, 10, 12 years ect and the world ends.
Can't believe people still fall for this crap even it's only 4%.
This is a handy mechanism for denial of limits to growth that I see misused frequently by those that can't apply a concept of deep time and want to see business as usual continue for as long as possible. Hominids have been around for 3 million years. Humans could be around for 200 million more if we do it right. Does it really repudiate the concept of carrying capacity if the dates for peak resource availability are pushed out by 30 years? The forecast of Hubbert's peak was actually fairly close to accurate given the information of the day from 60 years ago. He called for a global peak of oil production to occur in 2005. We have pushed past that by a couple decades for now via the then unknowable technology of fracking. But eventually oil will start to leave us long before we are ready to leave it.
The 1971 study of "Limits To Growth" had 15 years of better information and the charts are looking surprisingly accurate when overlaid with the actual values that occurred. They predicted peaks in the 2020-2030 time frame so have not been "proven as crap" yet.

There is new and unknowable tech that came into play even since 1971 but an important thing to consider is that advanced extraction technology and Modern Monetary Theory can pull resources forward in time to a higher peak but will lead to a steeper decline on the back side.
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