Quote:
Originally Posted by Xist
I do not know if there are any categories where one can predict the future, but since 1932 - 1940 gas prices have had huge cycles, but definitely an overall upward trend. However, accounting for inflation, it got cheaper and cheaper until 1998, and got increasingly more expensive since then. $1.02 in 1998 ($1.48 inflated) compared to $2.737 today, that is an average of an 8.2¢ increase every year for twenty-one years!
I am sure there are people that think that gas prices will stay "low" indefinitely, but I have never heard anyone make that claim.
Fuel economy seems to increase year after year, although I cannot find a neat table like for gas prices, but that took altogether too much searching.
I just looked at the Corolla. The hybrid is exactly $3,000 more than the standard version, but somehow gets 57.57% better fuel economy.
It says the ROI is 6.6 years, but 7.2 if you consider interest on the additional loan amount.
Do you guys expect gas prices to rise faster than fuel economy or visa-versa?
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I've searched a bit for average fuel economy for each state and not had much luck. I was curious how much of an impact CAFE had on improving fuel economy.
I think there's a chance fuel prices will remain relatively low for centuries, especially if we preemptively cripple the economy, or some combination of that and rational conservation coupled with improvements of alternative energy.
Hybrids probably never pencil out, because it isn't just the extra expense and the extra interest payments, but the lost investment potential of the money saved by not buying a hybrid. I make similar arguments against higher education for people that don't require it for a particular career. Not only is it expensive, and not only is the value of an undergrad degree becoming less valuable over time, and not only are there interest payments on loans... but you miss out on time that could be spent earning and investing money.
There's more potential for fuel prices to increase than there is for fuel economy to improve. There's diminishing returns on fuel economy, and the lowest hanging fruit has already been plucked. It would require radical lifestyle changes for people to adopt streamlined form-factors; a trend which we're moving in the opposite direction of.