Quote:
Originally Posted by sendler
Batteries for all of these new electrified machines will be the choke point.
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Scale
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We are up to 1.3 billion light vehicles on the roads in the world today. Replacing them all with EV's with 60kWH batteries requires that we build out 78 TWh of batteries. just to replace the cars and light trucks already in use. Not to mention providing a car to the other 5 billion people in the world that want one, but never had one.
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This is why autonomous vehicles are an important step towards reducing vehicle demand. When vehicles are autonomous, the cost per trip plummets and reduces the demand for personal vehicle ownership. Shifting vehicle utilization from ~5% to 50% or more will drastically reduce demand. The industry will consolidate as demand plummets and cars are commoditized.
What would total vehicle demand look like with robust automation in place? I could imagine it cutting demand to 25% of current sales.
I'd expect robust autonomous driving by 2040 in most vehicles sold, and perhaps a little sooner if it's given higher priority as a response to vehicular accidents and environmental concerns.