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Old 10-08-2019, 06:50 AM   #7341 (permalink)
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Batteries for all of these new electrified machines will be the choke point.
.
Scale
.
We are up to 1.3 billion light vehicles on the roads in the world today. Replacing them all with EV's with 60kWH batteries requires that we build out 78 TWh of batteries. just to replace the cars and light trucks already in use. Not to mention providing a car to the other 5 billion people in the world that want one, but never had one.
.
How many TWh will be needed for all of these earth movers, farm tractors, tractor trailers all over the world?
.
We need hundreds of TWh of batteries but marveled at the announcement of the first GigaFactory which was said to upon it's completion (Is it complete yet? After how many years?) at once double the world manufacturing capacity. With .035 TWh/ year! Has it ever come close to this number yet? The next big rave I am hearing about is a proposed joint venture in Germany with a hoped for capacity of .1 TWh/ year. These are immense projects when viewed on the ground, but pale when considered in the scale that would be required to replace all liquid fueled infrastructure that keeps us alive right now.
.
World battery production capacity is said to be .4 TWh/ year right now (all hauled with liquid fuel). I'm not seeing that much anywhere but will have to take their word for it. And is projected to grow to 1 TWh/ year by 2025. It must be remembered that the exponential growth that we have seen in solar, wind, and battery build out is easy to double when you start with next to nothing and will level out at some point. So even if it did double in 6 years, and double again by 2030, it will take 40 years to make enough batteries just so the rich 1.5 billion people of the world can have cars. Then we can get started on putting batteries in earth movers and tractor trailers. If there are any minerals still within reach.

 
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Old 10-08-2019, 07:18 AM   #7342 (permalink)
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"Everything is possible until it isn't".
.
I'm sorry but this is one of the most foolish things I have ever heard and begs an entire essay all on it's own. But that will have to wait for another day. Jumping off a cliff is survivable until it isn't.
.
Our minds can dream up many more ideas of things than what can exist in the real world. Many of our ideas on what to do next are vastly under informed. See the Hagens lecture at 30:43.
.
https://youtu.be/YUSpsT6Oqrg?t=1843
.

Human civilization is nothing without experience and forethought. False assumptions and corresponding poor decisions waste resources on dead end ideas. We must focus what we have left now that the world is full and everything is approaching peak, and choose wisely.
 
Old 10-08-2019, 07:34 AM   #7343 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sendler View Post
"Everything is possible until it isn't".
.
I'm sorry but this is one of the most foolish things I have ever heard and begs an entire essay all on it's own. But that will have to wait for another day. Jumping off a cliff is survivable until it isn't.
Always quote the original quote, never rewrite... because the quote was the exact opposite:

Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilBlanchard View Post
Of course we can. Everything is impossible - until it isn't.
And sure enough, inventions work that way.
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Old 10-08-2019, 07:58 AM   #7344 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sendler View Post
Batteries for all of these new electrified machines will be the choke point.
.
Scale
.
We are up to 1.3 billion light vehicles on the roads in the world today. Replacing them all with EV's with 60kWH batteries requires that we build out 78 TWh of batteries. just to replace the cars and light trucks already in use. Not to mention providing a car to the other 5 billion people in the world that want one, but never had one.
.
How many TWh will be needed for all of these earth movers, farm tractors, tractor trailers all over the world?
.
We need hundreds of TWh of batteries but marveled at the announcement of the first GigaFactory which was said to upon it's completion (Is it complete yet? After how many years?) at once double the world manufacturing capacity. With .035 TWh/ year! Has it ever come close to this number yet? The next big rave I am hearing about is a proposed joint venture in Germany with a hoped for capacity of .1 TWh/ year. These are immense projects when viewed on the ground, but pale when considered in the scale that would be required to replace all liquid fueled infrastructure that keeps us alive right now.
.
World battery production capacity is said to be .4 TWh/ year right now (all hauled with liquid fuel). I'm not seeing that much anywhere but will have to take their word for it. And is projected to grow to 1 TWh/ year by 2025. It must be remembered that the exponential growth that we have seen in solar, wind, and battery build out is easy to double when you start with next to nothing and will level out at some point. So even if it did double in 6 years, and double again by 2030, it will take 40 years to make enough batteries just so the rich 1.5 billion people of the world can have cars. Then we can get started on putting batteries in earth movers and tractor trailers. If there are any minerals still within reach.
All the tractors and earth moving equipment etc. will actually require less battery capacity than all cars and light trucks, because they are vastly outnumbered by the latter.

GF1 buildout is slow because Tesla is in the process of setting up its own battery manufacturing lines with its patented million mile chemistry and tech from Maxwell and its recently acquired Canadian battery manufacturer. Once that's done it will grow big. No it is not enough yet. But it will be.

There's no reason why doubling battery production should take 6 years. Production should be able to match demand,any demand, within 2 years - that's about how long it takes to set up all stages of battery manufacturing and resource mining (but I bet the Chinese can do it even faster).
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Last edited by RedDevil; 10-08-2019 at 08:34 AM..
 
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Old 10-08-2019, 08:23 AM   #7345 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RedDevil View Post
All the tractors and earth moving equipment etc. will actually require less battery capacity than all cars and light trucks, because they are vastly outnumbered by the latter.

GF1 buildout is slow because Tesla is in the process of setting up its own battery manufacturing lines with its million mile chemistry and tech from Maxwell and its recently acquired Canadian battery manufacturer. Once that's done it will grow big. No it is not enough yet. But it will be.

There's no reason why doubling battery production should take 6 years. Production should be able to match demand,any demand, within 2 years - that's about how long it takes to set up all stages of battery manufacturing and resource mining (but I bet the Chinese can do it even faster).
If you can't get a mine open that's a problem.
The nimby useful idiots here are trying to block a new cobalt mine and it looks like they might win.
If they can open the mine it will take best case scenario 2 years but the nimbys will probably be able to keep it tied up in court for years.
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Old 10-08-2019, 08:51 AM   #7346 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oil pan 4 View Post
....a 2,000 gallon fuel tank and 4,000 horsepower engine.....
Then there are the 6000HP mudders that splash through mudbowls to win a trophy. That was decades ago, so they're probably over 10,000 HP now.
Hey, I used to travel with my 10 gallon, sub-65HP, sub-$5,000 cars & got trophies at softball tournaments in Eastern Washington & Oregon.... even in Reno, Nevada.
I admit. My cars would have sunk so far into the mud at a bowl, the mudders would have used my cars as starting blocks..... & not given much help to any of them.
 
Old 10-08-2019, 10:18 AM   #7347 (permalink)
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Old 10-08-2019, 10:43 AM   #7348 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RedDevil View Post
There's no reason why doubling battery production should take 6 years. Production should be able to match demand,any demand, within 2 years - that's about how long it takes to set up all stages of battery manufacturing and resource mining (but I bet the Chinese can do it even faster).
Well obviously there are reasons. Requiring new manufacturing infrastructure. And new mines. The Tesla GigaFactory 1 was stated to be a marvel of modern manufacturing build out. After how many years and it is currently up to .02 TWh production/ year.
 
Old 10-08-2019, 12:30 PM   #7349 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sendler View Post
Batteries for all of these new electrified machines will be the choke point.
.
Scale
.
We are up to 1.3 billion light vehicles on the roads in the world today. Replacing them all with EV's with 60kWH batteries requires that we build out 78 TWh of batteries. just to replace the cars and light trucks already in use. Not to mention providing a car to the other 5 billion people in the world that want one, but never had one.
This is why autonomous vehicles are an important step towards reducing vehicle demand. When vehicles are autonomous, the cost per trip plummets and reduces the demand for personal vehicle ownership. Shifting vehicle utilization from ~5% to 50% or more will drastically reduce demand. The industry will consolidate as demand plummets and cars are commoditized.

What would total vehicle demand look like with robust automation in place? I could imagine it cutting demand to 25% of current sales.

I'd expect robust autonomous driving by 2040 in most vehicles sold, and perhaps a little sooner if it's given higher priority as a response to vehicular accidents and environmental concerns.
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Old 10-08-2019, 12:36 PM   #7350 (permalink)
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Solar City (Tesla) is only making a very very tiny amount of the promised production of solar panels and installing even less of them at a ever increasing cost.

Musk needs to be less optimistic when it comes to the production of (solar panels, batteries, cars) and more honest with his fans, investors, customer base, and media.



Broken promises and questionable dealings.

https://www.fredericksburg.com/opini...d8ee0da15.html



Even with all of these mounting problems, I want him to succeed.

He just needs to tone it down a little.




>

 
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