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Old 11-18-2019, 07:46 PM   #2 (permalink)
redpoint5
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Well, obvi.

EVs have a $7,500+ subsidy and represent 1% of US sales. Can you imagine what would happen, if for instance, the Honda Accord was given a $7,500 subsidy. 90% of all vehicles sold would be a Honda Accord then.

The batteries have to get better/cheaper. If it's just incremental improvements like we've seen, it will be some time before they overtake ICE sales. On the other hand, if a breakthrough occurs, such as the hype surrounding solid state batteries, then they might overtake ICE sales relatively quickly.

My WAG is 2035 to hit 50% sales. We'll see more plug-in hybrids in the meantime.
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