Quote:
Originally Posted by redpoint5
Lack of cases early on isn't necessarily an indicator of successful handling of the epidemic. As I still understand, the majority of us are likely to be exposed. Implementing measures to slow the spread early may result in a stronger spike later on. Time will bear out this possibility.
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I was thinking about this a bit, and realized that it's actually not desirable to just slow the spread, you actually want to completely stop it. If you allow it to slowly spread by random idiots ignoring quarantine measures, you need economically damaging measures for a much longer amount of time.
In Asia, that's what a lot of countries did: You're ordered to not leave the home except occasional grocery runs reported to the police, get checked for fever by the police, report your movements to the police, and for every positive case contact trace and find every person interacted with and isolate them in the hospital. If literally not a single person leaves the house, assuming you can build effective immunity, then about 3 full incubation periods of isolation should result in zero new cases (that's assuming you spread it to all the people living with you).
I have a bad feeling that with all the people still walking around the parks in NYC that the slowed spread is still going to be a prolonged issue and is going to more or less take out the entire restaurant/hotel industry when it really didn't have to. People need to stay home, right NOW if they don't want this to be a prolonged nightmare.
Worse yet, the reports about recovered patients getting reinfected and the virus laying dormant in the body is very very bad. That means you could have everyone recover, but it could still flare up again.
My ~1.5 months of food remaining might not be enough...:/