New Coronavirus - COVID-19

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by freebeard

Scott Adams needs to get out more.

He takes a call and they speculate about why there are not more cases in Russia.

Lack of cases early on isn't necessarily an indicator of successful handling of the epidemic. As I still understand, the majority of us are likely to be exposed. Implementing measures to slow the spread early may result in a stronger spike later on. Time will bear out this possibility.

Silver Falls is busier than usual. If only I owned state parks, I'd be doing great during the crisis. I wonder if the state will take the extra revenue and install more falls. They've been stuck with a Trail of 10 Falls for quite some time despite having vastly increased revenue over the years. Then again, why change it if people still come.

[freebeard]

I wonder if the state will take the extra revenue and install more falls.

[serialk11r]

Originally Posted by redneck

.

Since this looks like it started sometime in October 2019, Millions are probably infected. It was out and spreading way before the Chinese government officially admitted to a problem.

Clock and TMRCA based on 27 genomes - nCoV-2019 Genomic Epidemiology - Virological

One can be asymptomatic, then spread it far and wide...



>

AFAIK the first confirmed case was retroactively found to be an onset of illness on Nov 17 (seafood market pneumonia patients were discovered December 30th ish, WHO was told on Dec 31st, identified as a new virus Jan 7th), but that person is not believed to be patient zero, so the existence of patient zero in late October is definitely possible. That's only about one or two incubation periods from Nov 17th, so it makes sense.

Adjusted for comorbidities, you can expect around 500-1000 infections per death, then adjust the death numbers up a little to account for uncounted deaths due to lack of testing, then project likely deaths in new hotspots like SF/NYC, you get around 1 million and slowly growing, but probably not that many more.

The scary thing is if it took 2.5 entire months to even find, what if it's a virus with very severe long term effects like HIV? Living past the age of 70 could become a very unsure proposition if a virus that everyone has like HPV, EBV, influenza easily kills you as you're older.

Thinking about that makes me realize maybe I should go buy more sports cars while I'm still alive

[serialk11r]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Lack of cases early on isn't necessarily an indicator of successful handling of the epidemic. As I still understand, the majority of us are likely to be exposed. Implementing measures to slow the spread early may result in a stronger spike later on. Time will bear out this possibility.

I was thinking about this a bit, and realized that it's actually not desirable to just slow the spread, you actually want to completely stop it. If you allow it to slowly spread by random idiots ignoring quarantine measures, you need economically damaging measures for a much longer amount of time.

In Asia, that's what a lot of countries did: You're ordered to not leave the home except occasional grocery runs reported to the police, get checked for fever by the police, report your movements to the police, and for every positive case contact trace and find every person interacted with and isolate them in the hospital. If literally not a single person leaves the house, assuming you can build effective immunity, then about 3 full incubation periods of isolation should result in zero new cases (that's assuming you spread it to all the people living with you).

I have a bad feeling that with all the people still walking around the parks in NYC that the slowed spread is still going to be a prolonged issue and is going to more or less take out the entire restaurant/hotel industry when it really didn't have to. People need to stay home, right NOW if they don't want this to be a prolonged nightmare.

Worse yet, the reports about recovered patients getting reinfected and the virus laying dormant in the body is very very bad. That means you could have everyone recover, but it could still flare up again.

My ~1.5 months of food remaining might not be enough...:/

[Xist]

Apparently Mark Rober only copied Scrubs, but without showing how it kills:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VK2vpOh5wws

[Xist]

At the current rate that coronavirus is growing, everyone will have it by April or May. Hopefully we get the medical equipment that we need before it is absolutely too late, but who will run it? You draft five million healthy adults and give them a crash course. How long would it take to train an optometrist, dentist, or chiropractor to work in an E.R.?

[redpoint5]

Too far a stretch from my normal sarcasm I guess with that joke about installing more falls. It's a commentary about how walking in nature costs money. State parks should be funded the same as city parks; with normal taxes. My serious question though, is what does the state do with a windfall of funds they hadn't forecast? Should I expect a State Park refund any day now? Some letter saying the state only needed $1M to run a few toilets and allow trees to grow and water to fall, and instead they received $3M.

Regarding exponential infection rate spread; it's unsustainable. As the population progressively gets exposed, it eliminates hosts capable of spreading the virus. At some point the virus has infected a sufficient number of people that its own success undermines its ability to find vulnerable hosts. I'm not saying we're there yet, but I am saying that whatever the current rate of infection is can't be assumed to carry forward for months.

[Xist]

Point of diminishing return.

So, you are saying that my spreadsheet is inaccurate, and we will not have 433 trillion deaths by August First?

Whew!

[freebeard]

Too far a stretch from my normal sarcasm I guess with that joke about installing more falls. It's a commentary about how walking in nature costs money.

I half-way thought you were serious: falls not currently served with trails or maybe diverting upstream flow to an new location.

I've seen stories about them tearing down the brand new hospital in Wuhan, and that story from King County about making a 'field hospital' on a soccer field. Apparently it's for convalescence.

[Xist]

Field hospital in Washington:
https://www.columbian.com/news/2020/...th-toll-at-74/

Mississippi:

[paywall] https://www.clarionledger.com/story/...ds/2876855001/

Virginia:

https://www.fredericksburg.com/news/...f41f8621e.html

Florida:

https://wsvn.com/news/local/broward/...rt-lauderdale/

New York:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/we...mo/ar-BB11wbRf

These were from the first page of image results posted in the last week.

Have we mentioned this? Netflix urged to slow streaming to prevent breaking the internet

In 2006 doctors figured out how to use one ventilator for two patients, which was tried successfully after the Las Vegas shooting. One of those doctors created a video. Another doctor made his own video about it and somehow he is getting all of the attention, but anyway, under certain conditions, one ventilator can keep two people alive: Perth doctor rigs up solution to feared ventilator shortage

For some reason the Daily Mail claims this can be adapted for nine patients. It is possible, but nine patients with similar size, lung capacity, and status?