Quote:
Originally Posted by Piotrsko
The consensus is we will see another huge filing for unemployment Friday.
You make more on unemployment for only the duration of the bailout funding. Pundits are saying this will make 2008 look easy. Nobody knows because we've never seen this scenario. YMMV.
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My estimation is that this is nearly guaranteed to be much worse than 2008. GDP was down 3% from that "meltdown". We're somewhere around 20% down currently, and we're far from the worst of this disease. Cases are expected to to peak in May, with deaths expected to peak in July. We're likely to see multiple peaking cycles with government mostly keeping us in quarantine but relaxing periodically.
Even if we were somehow able to get back to 100% output next month, we'd have already lost more economic productivity than we did in 2008-2009 on an annualized basis. I started out naively optimistic with this, but now as people build optimism I'm growing in pessimism. Government wouldn't issue shelter in place unless the problem was dire, and in most places we haven't hit dire times yet.