What would it take for the U.S. to enter a recession?

[Xist]

As of a few days ago, 3.3 million Americans filed for unemployment. The thing is, I see Help Wanted signs all over.

However, even though the minimum wage in Arizona is $12, it seems like nobody wants these jobs.

At least for the duration of the emergency.

You could work a job that you hate and earn $7,680 in four months, or you could file for unemployment, receive $14,000 in that same time frame, and dedicate more time to criticizing baby boomers.

55% as much money and a much higher risk of getting sick, regardless of how bad you feel the coronavirus is.

If you miss work you earn $0.

How will retailers fill those positions?

They need to pay more.

I cannot imagine them paying as much as unemployment would give, but I am sure that at some wage in the middle they can maintain enough staff to sell all of the toilet paper and hand sanitizer they can order.

I doubt they would ever convince someone to return to the work force, but if you offer more than their current employer, you can probably bring them over.

However, I would also expect stores to raise prices to pay higher wages.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

You think all this economic turmoil and layoffs will cause a net increase, decrease, or keep prices about steady for new vehicles (and products in general). What will happen with used car values?

On the one hand, there's little new production (limited supply), but on the other, nobody can afford anything (limited demand).

The decline in supply is real. The decline in demand is psychological - at least for now. Yes, some people have lost their jobs but the vast majority have not. There are still plenty of people working at full pay and some working more hours and making more money.

Price for high demand models might actually go up. I suspect run of the mill models will get higher and higher incentives. I don't see any real big changes to overall strategy. Companies were already planning for a recession this year. (at least mine was)

[Piotrsko]

The consensus is we will see another huge filing for unemployment Friday.

You make more on unemployment for only the duration of the bailout funding. Pundits are saying this will make 2008 look easy. Nobody knows because we've never seen this scenario. YMMV.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by Xist

I am disappointed that politician did not know that you cannot receive unemployment after quitting, but politicians disappoint me every day.

Why do you think politicians don't know you can't get unemployment after quitting? That is pretty common knowledge.

Originally Posted by Xist

I wouldn't want to leave on poor terms because I would want to return once unemployment runs out.

However, would I get all of my clients back, or would the other S.L.P.A. get them?

I really doubt if you quit right now you would get hired back let alone get your old clients back. Why would she piss off her other employees that stood by her now to give you your clients back? Why would she interrupt the client's treatment by transferring them unnecessarily?

Originally Posted by Xist

I hate to think of some city folk picking up clients in my area. Since she will not be driving all over, that other S.L.P.A. can pick up more clients.

What I like is that they authorized tele evaluations. I have had a client waiting for an evaluation for over three months!

Remote work is a two-edged sword. If you can do your work remotely you are competing not only with the whole state but with the whole world. Some of my co-workers think this period of working from home will show our company that we don't have to go to the office. I think it will show them that and that a remote engineer from Mexico or India can do the job for a small fraction of the salary of a US engineer. We have already been moving that direction. (As have the last 3 companies I worked for - even the one with only a few thousand employees)

Originally Posted by Xist

Right now there is only one agency advertising in the Phoenix area with comparable pay. They actually advertise $1 an hour more for a W-2 employee than my agency pays 1099 contractors.

$1 more an hour + paying half of payroll taxes (7.7% of your wages) + 6% of the first $7,000 you make for unemployment insurance.

This is the first time contract and self-employed workers have been eligible for unemployment benefits. Even in 2008/2009 you were out of luck if you were not a W2 employee.

Originally Posted by Xist

Maybe she could get me a good caseload out here, but that still does not seem like an atmosphere that I want.

Sometime you have to work a job you don't like with a boss you dislike to pay the bills and get ahead.

Originally Posted by Xist

As of a few days ago, 3.3 million Americans filed for unemployment. The thing is, I see Help Wanted signs all over.

However, even though the minimum wage in Arizona is $12, it seems like nobody wants these jobs.

Grocery stores near me are paying the workers extra hazard pay, bringing in food for them to eat lunch, and putting up sneeze guards and making other changes to reduce risk.

It would be pretty short sighted to quit a job you have had for awhile (and likely worked your way to more than minimum wage) to grab a temporary unemployment check. The extra $600 a week ends in July and there are going to be millions of people competing for jobs. Regular unemployment maxes out at 45% of your normal paycheck for many people it is much less. When I collect unemployment in 2008/2009 it was less than 20% of my pay and didn't even cover the mortgage on our modest house in the extreme burbs.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by Piotrsko

The consensus is we will see another huge filing for unemployment Friday.

You make more on unemployment for only the duration of the bailout funding. Pundits are saying this will make 2008 look easy. Nobody knows because we've never seen this scenario. YMMV.

My estimation is that this is nearly guaranteed to be much worse than 2008. GDP was down 3% from that "meltdown". We're somewhere around 20% down currently, and we're far from the worst of this disease. Cases are expected to to peak in May, with deaths expected to peak in July. We're likely to see multiple peaking cycles with government mostly keeping us in quarantine but relaxing periodically.

Even if we were somehow able to get back to 100% output next month, we'd have already lost more economic productivity than we did in 2008-2009 on an annualized basis. I started out naively optimistic with this, but now as people build optimism I'm growing in pessimism. Government wouldn't issue shelter in place unless the problem was dire, and in most places we haven't hit dire times yet.

[Xist]

Politicians say ignorant things all of the time.

She who?

My boss is a dude, but I live in a small town in rural Arizona. There are 11,000 people in Show Low and 100,000 people in the entire county. The other SLPA works for a different agency.

It is just the two of us for the entire area.

So, maybe the support coordinators would assign my clients to the other SLPA, but honestly, some probably wouldn't get reassigned, and in this purely hypothetical situation, Mr. Boss man would reach out to the families that weren't reassigned, and ask "Xist is back. Do you want to resume therapy?"

Don't get any crazy ideas that I want to do this or have any relevant plans. I like my job and love my clients. I am not going anywhere, I just do not like that the unemployed will receive more money than I am.

I do not want more pay, just more clients.

As an SLPA, my license is only good in the state of Arizona. As far as I know, this is true nationwide, although an SLP in Mississippi could do teletherapy with a client in California.

Yes, an engineer could work from any country, but so could a doctor or a teacher. We could fix our shortage by outsourcing everything.

You forgot retirement!

I pay my bills.

As I have said time and again, all that matters is that I get into grad school. As an SLP I can get a job earning $50,000 in 10 months, or go rogue, get my own clients, and earn $149.31 an hour. Even if I still only averaged nine hours a week that would be $1,343.79 weekly and $67,189.50 a year.

They were supposed to send out their acceptance letters by now

I found the program's Facebook page and inquired.

I do believe in being proactive.

The news showed sneeze guards being installed in our stores, which is great. I have not seen anything about extra pay, just some place advertising "$12 an hour!"

I do not think that it matters how high the minimum wage is, people won't be excited about earning it. They always want to earn higher.

The only place that offered extra pay was when I went through Kevin's job suggestions for an old Army friend that complained about searching for a job, especially right now.

Some company contracts drivers for Amazon. They pay $15 an hour, but right now are offering an extra $2. I shared the link, but he did not respond.

I check for SLPA jobs every day and I have never seen an agency offering minimum wage [for a job that requires a degree], but I have seen a few districts offer $13 - 14.

$20 - 25 is more common.

I moved to Show Low March 16th, 2018 and was hired the next day. I have received a raise, but everybody did. As far as I know, they pay all SLPAs in an area the same, and all SLPs in one area the same. When the state gave everyone a raise I posted in a speech therapy Facebook group.

None of the other agencies paid as well as mine and many didn't mention they were receiving more money. People were upset that they were being paid less than me, but as far as I know, they calmed down and said "This is fine."

It seemed strange that people were upset that my agency did not pay extra for x, y, and z, even though they paid everyone better than the best-qualified therapist elsewhere.

I heard back from NAU!
They said

[serialk11r]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

My estimation is that this is nearly guaranteed to be much worse than 2008. GDP was down 3% from that "meltdown". We're somewhere around 20% down currently, and we're far from the worst of this disease.

This. 2008 was a financial crisis, not an economic crisis. Once the system was propped up by government loans, things approximately went back to normal, minus the economic disruption from various companies going bankrupt.

This time it's an economic slowdown, and there happens to be the debt bubble built up from 2008 that's popping.

[freebeard]

I think I'm making posts that don't show up. This is a test



edit; Whelp, maybe it was here.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

My estimation is that this is nearly guaranteed to be much worse than 2008. GDP was down 3% from that "meltdown". We're somewhere around 20% down currently, and we're far from the worst of this disease. Cases are expected to to peak in May, with deaths expected to peak in July. We're likely to see multiple peaking cycles with government mostly keeping us in quarantine but relaxing periodically.

Even if we were somehow able to get back to 100% output next month, we'd have already lost more economic productivity than we did in 2008-2009 on an annualized basis. I started out naively optimistic with this, but now as people build optimism I'm growing in pessimism. Government wouldn't issue shelter in place unless the problem was dire, and in most places we haven't hit dire times yet.

This has the potential to go either way. Yes, the drop is way deeper than 2008/2009 but so could the rise. It all depends whether we react to this is a coordinated way or not. We must do a nationwide shut down to buy time and stop the spread. If we don't this will roll on and on through the summer and a massive and long lasting recession is all but certain.

I believe we are lucky that this happened early in an election year. It is tool late for politicians to fear a primary challenge and early enough that they have to do something about it because they know they will be judged by the people in 8 months.

The stimulus in 2009 happened after more than a year of steady job loses. Back then congress, fresh off elections and not needing to stand before the voters for another 2 years only managed to scrap together a $0.8 Trillion dollar stimulus and they did very little to put money into the hands of low and middle income families that would spend it. We got a payroll tax cut that gave people a few more bucks a check. We got a $250 check. The unemployed got extended benefits but the checks remained at poverty levels that didn't keep people from losing their homes, cars, and hope. Recovery was slow and steady and it took 3 years for unemployment to get back to the levels before the recession although a lot of people were working jobs that made less than before.

Today people are unemployed because the government told them to go home. All my company's factories in North America are closed but they could open them back up as soon the government gives the all clear. The factories in China are back up and running now that the pandemic has passed and they still have an order book to build.

Congress and the President stand before the voters in 8 months time and they know they will be judged on the economy and what they did for the little guy. In two weeks they put together a $2.2 trillion dollar package with the majority targeted at keeping people above water until they can get back to work. The Republicans that a loath to give the unemployed and poor any money didn't blink at giving every unemployed person an extra $600 a week check and expanding who qualified. The Democrats that hate large corporations signed off on $500 billion to keep them in business with very few strings attached. We have a chance at starting up the country in a few months with most families and businesses still intact. The unemployment check, $1200 checks, and business loans could do that. (A friend of mine with a small business is thinking about use the new loans to expand and refinance to come out of this is better shape then he started)

All of this depends on us getting a national quarantine right and keeping it in place long enough for it to work. That requires the President to take the long view and stay focused. We aren't going to be back to normal on Easter, half the country still has uncontrolled spread. The long game isn't his strong suit but his reelection depends on it so hopefully that is enough and his people can convince him that pain today is worth it.

There will most likely be another spike in the fall, there was in the 1918 flu pandemic. We MUST use this time to get the medical equipment we need, the ventilators, and most importantly a huge number of testing kits ready for the fall. There is no way Trump is going to shut things down again a couple months before election day.

We will have to treat the virus in the fall like South Korea and Singapore handled the first waive. Test everyone that has flu like symptoms. Quarantine those that have COVID 19 and trace everyone they came in contact with and quarantine them. We can't let it get out of hand again so it become necessary to send everyone home.

So I have hope but it is diminished by the President. I would feel a whole lot better with a President Pence in charge today instead of Trump. I would feel WAY better with my personal 2016 choice Kasich in charge. I wonder how many people in the GOP feel the same way and are secretly regretting not taking the chance to get rid of Trump when they could. They will all rise or fall on what Trump does.

[freebeard]

They will all rise or fall on what Trump does.

I, for one, am willing to take that chance. Pence is a good guy, but I don't think he could have staged the counter-coup the generals wanted.



So which country is best positioned to return to the Gold Standard? What will voters think if the 103-year old Beast From Jekyll Island has been slain?

The survivors, of which there will be many, will see the Golden Age that Scott Adams promised. The anti-Black Swan is a combination of Gold and Chloroquine.