Quote:
Originally Posted by serialk11r
When deaths in those states starts picking up, that's when you can think about getting back into the stock market, assuming the federal government isn't collapsing. That's when people start saying "maybe we should stay the f*** inside" and the spread stops, and the 2 month countdown to business as usual starts.
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There's a couple threads I'm following on Mr. Money Mustache.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/in...nts-401ks/550/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/welp-i'm-going-to-take-a-stab-at-timing-the-market/
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piotrsko
Good luck trying to time the market low. Proven many times over that the average joe can't. If you have excess data and massive compute power you can sometimes get close
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Yeah, it's just like trying to beat the market average by having managed mutual funds; proven many times over that "experts" on average, can do no better than the market.
All that said, I believe some people have a better understanding on such matters and can, over time, beat the market average. Those people when averaged with those who are worse at this end up performing just as well as the market as a whole.
At any rate, there's no doubt that now is a good time to buy in (if not the best) just because it's discounted so heavily. The DOW was nearly at 30k in Feb, and it hit a bottom of 19k and is currently at 21k. The market is 1/3 discounted at the moment.
Some people speculate this recovery is false and the market will drop closer to 16k. I tend to think the full weight of this crisis hasn't been felt by people yet because we don't know people that have died yet, or experienced the illness ourselves. Once things really start getting nasty, and the news isn't having to make up crisis stories such as people having to reuse masks, but actual tragedies like choosing who gets a ventilator and who doesn't, then we'll see the market take another hit.
We're also just in our first quarantine period. We will see more in the future. I think the market expects this to be a 1 and done event and has priced things incorrectly.
As an aside, the deadline for 2019 IRA or HSA contributions has been extended to July 15th along with the deadline for filing taxes.
... tonight I have a Zoom chat and Scotch hour scheduled with an economist friend and a couple other smart guys to discuss this topic.