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Old 04-01-2020, 10:26 AM   #501 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by JSH View Post
No. 17 States aren't even trying yet which means the clock hasn't started yet.
When deaths in those states starts picking up, that's when you can think about getting back into the stock market, assuming the federal government isn't collapsing. That's when people start saying "maybe we should stay the f*** inside" and the spread stops, and the 2 month countdown to business as usual starts.

 
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Old 04-01-2020, 10:45 AM   #502 (permalink)
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Good luck trying to time the market low. Proven many times over that the average joe can't. If you have excess data and massive compute power you can sometimes get close
 
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Old 04-01-2020, 10:58 AM   #503 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by serialk11r View Post
When deaths in those states starts picking up, that's when you can think about getting back into the stock market, assuming the federal government isn't collapsing. That's when people start saying "maybe we should stay the f*** inside" and the spread stops, and the 2 month countdown to business as usual starts.
I have set buys every day in our Roth 401ks to dollar cost average. Iím not going to try to time the bottom of the market.

My wife and I have also changed our 401k contributions to pull contributions into the next 4-6 months. My wifeís company limits contributions to only 30% of salary so it will take a while to get the full $19,500 limit into the market. Also you never know if one of us will be laid off and lose that investment opportunity. 20 years from now the difference between one month and the next will be pretty small.
 
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Old 04-01-2020, 11:04 AM   #504 (permalink)
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In Vermont, the governor has everyone sheltering in-place until the 15th, but it doesn't seem like it's being taken seriously by many.

My job is considered essential - at least parts of it. I support access control and security of other essential businesses, such as hospitals, data centers and retirement homes.

Most of our employees are working from home, and doing mostly remote work at that. However, there's some arguably non-essential work going on. We have a copy of the federal guidelines sent out on the conference table at work, and it seems to leave a lot of discretion for what is and isn't non-essential.

An example. Yesterday I was sent to install an alarm panel (typically lower pay technician work) at a gas station + deli. I was skeptical but was told measures were in place to reduce my exposure. This is a business which is normally open 24 hours, but with the virus going around, it may be shut down for periods of the night at some point in the near future, and they had no security. The logic was sound on this one.

I've been holed up for nearly 2 weeks, not leaving my house for anything except the occasional task for work, so I didn't have a good sense of how people are treating the lockdown order. While I was on site, there was a considerable amount of foot traffic, more than I had anticipated. At one point around the lunch rush there might have been 15 warm bodies inside the store, in line for the deli. The rest of the day it was mostly people coming in looking for lottery tickets (which weren't being sold) or to get Gatorade or beer.

I should have just left the job unfinished, but due to indecisiveness and hesitation instead opted to send my boss an email letting him know how it was in the field, and inform him I would not be going to another site like this.

Today I'm working remotely until noon, at which point I'm going to a local university to hang a couple of exterior cameras. The school is deserted, and the only interaction I'll have is with the dispatcher at their fire department to get a set of keys. I consider this a pretty safe task. However, although it's very low risk, it's also clearly "non-essential" and could have been put off. OTOH, it's helping to ensure we all still have jobs at the end.

Last meeting, we were told that where employees go is entirely at their discretion, aside from certain places (e.g. nobody is going to retirement homes unless it's unavoidable and critical). Everyone is guaranteed a paycheck every week and for benefits to stay active, regardless of how busy we are. I'm aware of some other employees who were already paycheck to paycheck, and are doing their best to stay at or above 40 hours.

Speaking with my boss privately, although everyone is able to use their discretion, it's his opinion that this is a media circus, and he's more concerned about the economic fallout than by the virus itself, citing things like the statistics of dying from a car accident or the flu. Add on top of that everyone's individual self interest in keeping the money flowing, and you have a situation where our system is working against the public health.
 
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Old 04-01-2020, 11:50 AM   #505 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by serialk11r View Post
When deaths in those states starts picking up, that's when you can think about getting back into the stock market, assuming the federal government isn't collapsing. That's when people start saying "maybe we should stay the f*** inside" and the spread stops, and the 2 month countdown to business as usual starts.
There's a couple threads I'm following on Mr. Money Mustache.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/in...nts-401ks/550/

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/welp-i'm-going-to-take-a-stab-at-timing-the-market/

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Originally Posted by Piotrsko View Post
Good luck trying to time the market low. Proven many times over that the average joe can't. If you have excess data and massive compute power you can sometimes get close
Yeah, it's just like trying to beat the market average by having managed mutual funds; proven many times over that "experts" on average, can do no better than the market.

All that said, I believe some people have a better understanding on such matters and can, over time, beat the market average. Those people when averaged with those who are worse at this end up performing just as well as the market as a whole.

At any rate, there's no doubt that now is a good time to buy in (if not the best) just because it's discounted so heavily. The DOW was nearly at 30k in Feb, and it hit a bottom of 19k and is currently at 21k. The market is 1/3 discounted at the moment.

Some people speculate this recovery is false and the market will drop closer to 16k. I tend to think the full weight of this crisis hasn't been felt by people yet because we don't know people that have died yet, or experienced the illness ourselves. Once things really start getting nasty, and the news isn't having to make up crisis stories such as people having to reuse masks, but actual tragedies like choosing who gets a ventilator and who doesn't, then we'll see the market take another hit.

We're also just in our first quarantine period. We will see more in the future. I think the market expects this to be a 1 and done event and has priced things incorrectly.

As an aside, the deadline for 2019 IRA or HSA contributions has been extended to July 15th along with the deadline for filing taxes.

... tonight I have a Zoom chat and Scotch hour scheduled with an economist friend and a couple other smart guys to discuss this topic.
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Old 04-01-2020, 12:01 PM   #506 (permalink)
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Vermont is doing better than most. According to cell phone data, travel distance has been reduced by 55-70%. Of course it also varies county by county.
 
Old 04-01-2020, 01:16 PM   #508 (permalink)
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Sorry I probably should've said that economic recovery timeline becomes more certain when all states enact lockdown measures or have high enough death rates to scare people.

"Massive compute power" - You probably read the synopsis of one of those books, but computing power is not very important for most trading. For example, high frequency trading requires low latency but not high throughput generally speaking. If you handed any random computer scientist all of Renaissance's data and all the computing power in the world, they wouldn't necessarily have an edge in the market. You could even hand them the best low latency trading execution systems in existence and they would still be a long way from generating profit. You have to know what to do with the computers.

"Experts on average don't do better than the market" - This is true, because they ARE the market. A lot of them are not smart and thus investors have been pulling money out of active management.

In times like these the risks and uncertainty are easy to understand: How long does the epidemic last? The effects are obvious: virus stalls economy making debt go into default, government intervention is limited by inflation risk.
 
Old 04-01-2020, 02:21 PM   #509 (permalink)
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For example, high frequency trading requires low latency but not high throughput generally speaking
This is Starlink's initial market. Inner space is faster than undersea cables.
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Old 04-01-2020, 02:52 PM   #510 (permalink)
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This is Starlink's initial market. Inner space is faster than undersea cables.
Nope. Latency is limited by the speed of light, which is close to c in air. Land based microwave towers placed in a straight line are how Chicago and NYC are connected.

Beaming signals hundreds of miles up to satellites then back down adds a ton of latency.

 
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