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Sorry I probably should've said that economic recovery timeline becomes more certain when all states enact lockdown measures or have high enough death rates to scare people.
"Massive compute power" - You probably read the synopsis of one of those books, but computing power is not very important for most trading. For example, high frequency trading requires low latency but not high throughput generally speaking. If you handed any random computer scientist all of Renaissance's data and all the computing power in the world, they wouldn't necessarily have an edge in the market. You could even hand them the best low latency trading execution systems in existence and they would still be a long way from generating profit. You have to know what to do with the computers.
"Experts on average don't do better than the market" - This is true, because they ARE the market. A lot of them are not smart and thus investors have been pulling money out of active management.
In times like these the risks and uncertainty are easy to understand: How long does the epidemic last? The effects are obvious: virus stalls economy making debt go into default, government intervention is limited by inflation risk.
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