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Old 04-13-2020, 08:15 PM   #748 (permalink)
mort
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redpoint5 View Post
you want a certain velocity of virus spread so that herd immunity can be achieved.
I don't think so. You want to avoid overwhelming hospitals.
Herd immunity, if it is possible at all, would probably need at least 70% of the population to have been infected.
In Los Angeles County about 300 people have died from CV-19, assume only .5% mortality. That implies about 60,000 infections. L. A. County is home to about 10 million people.
Assuming .1% mortality, 70% of the population infected would require about 7000 dead, more than 20 times worse than right now.

And on a side note, there are no vaccines for any corona virus. There were potential candidates for MERS and SARS, both had animal models and the SARS vaccine was safety tested in the animal model. But never given to people (until this year). Even the feline corona virus vaccine showed vaccine-induced enhancement and was scrapped.
-mort