New Coronavirus - COVID-19

[redpoint5]

I started watching videos from Dr. John Campbell on Youtube.

There appears to be 2 strains of the virus, and China mostly contained one type, while the rest of the world was infected by the other. It's unclear if immunity to 1 type can provide a defense against the other type, so we could potentially see a 2nd wave of infection related to the 2nd type being introduced. A vaccine would likely be developed to immunize against both types.

[Xist]

I doubt they have any idea where the second strain originated.

[freebeard]

I like Dr. Campbell's low-key presentation style.

Here's 11 minutes that supports the 'blood disease' scenario:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Dwcfye7_LQ

They compare to high-altitude symptoms instead of CO poisoning.

edit: Also this:
www.redstate.com: Taiwan Releases Email Showing They Warned the WHO in December About Virus, Were Ignored

[Xist]

Some doctors moving away from ventilators for virus patients
They are running out of ventilators, but a surprising number of patients are dying on ventilators, so doctors are pursuing other options.

Imagine a patient needs a ventilator, but none are available, so they just try to keep him or her comfortable. That patient recovers, while ones on ventilators do not make it.

Also, Chicago pizzeria using oven to make face shields for healthcare workers Do they have a dedicated shield oven?

...and, it was inevitable: Trump retweets post calling for firing of Dr. Anthony Fauci The White House has zero tolerance for competence.

Turnip regurgitated a post by a

candidate who garnered 1.8% of the vote in an all-primary challenge to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi

Mr. President, what do you call someone who gets less than 2% of the vote? Oh wait:
Thanks Ace!

Right! The loser!

“Fauci was telling people on February 29th that there was nothing to worry about and it posed no threat to the US public at large,” she continued.“

This interview on the Today Show?

Alexander: "So, Dr. Fauci, it’s Saturday morning in America. People are waking up right now with real concerns about this. They want to go to malls and movies, maybe the gym as well. Should we be changing our habits and, if so, how?"

Fauci: "No. Right now, at this moment, there’s no need to change anything that you’re doing on a day by day basis. Right now the risk is still low, but this could change. I’ve said that many times even on this program. You’ve got to watch out because although the risk is low now, you don’t need to change anything you’re doing. When you start to see community spread, this could change and force you to become much more attentive to doing things that would protect you from spread."

Welker: "Dr. Fauci, quickly, how does this all end?"

Fauci: "You know, it ends if you -- it depends on the nature of the outbreak. I mean, this could be a major outbreak. I hope not. Or it could be something that’s reasonably well controlled. At the end of the day, this will ultimately go down. Hopefully we could protect the American public from any serious degree of morbidity or mortality. That’s the reason why we’ve got to do the things that we have in our plan."

Or later that day in a White House press briefing?

The country as a whole, because we get asked that all the time, still remains at low risk. But when we say that, we want to underscore that this is an evolving situation, and in real time we will keep you apprised of what is going on, just the same way as we are doing it today.

We need to prepare for further challenges, and we will have them. You will hear about the additional cases that will be coming on. You should not be surprised by that, but to realize that that is something that is anticipated when you get community spread.

I bet that she didn't do well in school.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by Xist

Turnip regurgitated a post...

You're quoting others while saying nothing yourself, so it's difficult to track what it is you're trying to highlight. Orange Man Bad?

It seems like you're implying the current outbreak could have been contained had the federal government taking things more "seriously".

Simply recognizing the seriousness of something doesn't necessarily mean the outcome can be meaningfully different. Containment was never on the table (it was when we didn't know anything, but in hindsight it isn't).

It isn't clear that worrying the public sooner would have resulted in better outcomes for both health and the economy. Had we locked things down sooner, we'd simply be in month 2 of quarantine rather than month 1, and that would probably have been premature since you want a certain velocity of virus spread so that herd immunity can be achieved.

[freebeard]

Xist — Did you have any success recasting your TP joke with Amber Heard and Johnny Depp?

Doctor John on immunity, antigens and antibodies:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LN3h4nrjnHc

Lest we forget —The first American Revolution was carried out during a smallpox epidemic with a 30% death rate: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1775-1782_North_American_smallpox_epidemic

www.metrolyrics.com/were-bringing-the-war-back-home-lyrics-firesign-theatre.html

We're bringing the war back home
Where it ought to have been before!
We'll kill all the bees
And spiders and flies
And we wont play in iceboxes lying on their sides
We'll wash our hands after wee-wee.
And if we're a girl, before!
And we'll march, march, march, et cetera!
'Til we never do march no more!

edit:
YT: California, Oregon, and Washington team up to lift coronavirus restrictions
Some governors are accepting their role in the Union.

[HaroldinCR]

Read an article headline on Fox news today. Seems that 6 viruses were recently discovered on bats.

Working concrete all day, so too tired to post a link.

[mort]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

you want a certain velocity of virus spread so that herd immunity can be achieved.

I don't think so. You want to avoid overwhelming hospitals.
Herd immunity, if it is possible at all, would probably need at least 70% of the population to have been infected.
In Los Angeles County about 300 people have died from CV-19, assume only .5% mortality. That implies about 60,000 infections. L. A. County is home to about 10 million people.
Assuming .1% mortality, 70% of the population infected would require about 7000 dead, more than 20 times worse than right now.

And on a side note, there are no vaccines for any corona virus. There were potential candidates for MERS and SARS, both had animal models and the SARS vaccine was safety tested in the animal model. But never given to people (until this year). Even the feline corona virus vaccine showed vaccine-induced enhancement and was scrapped.
-mort

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by mort

I don't think so. You want to avoid overwhelming hospitals.
Herd immunity, if it is possible at all, would probably need at least 70% of the population to have been infected.
In Los Angeles County about 300 people have died from CV-19, assume only .5% mortality. That implies about 60,000 infections. L. A. County is home to about 10 million people.
Assuming .1% mortality, 70% of the population infected would require about 7000 dead, more than 20 times worse than right now.

Avoiding overrunning hospitals is precisely why you wouldn't want to quarantine people prematurely. Start it too soon, and eventually people start relaxing their quarantine or the government ends it prematurely, and hospitals get overrun.

There's no reason to expect we'll be able to avoid your 20x more death figure. We're continuing to see the tally increase at roughly 1,500 per day in the US, and when mitigation regulations are relaxed, we'll see that figure climb again as people start interacting again. Since we have little herd immunity, that number can still rapidly explode, necessitating a quarantine all over again.

As I say, you want a certain velocity of disease spread, not because spreading disease is good, but because locking down the economy is bad and doesn't solve the problem of building herd immunity. Herd immunity is the only option with the exception of lockdown for the next 12-18 months while a vaccine is developed. Nobody is going to live like this for the next year and a half.

[HaroldinCR]

Here is that link I posted about earlier regarding the 6 new corona viruses discovered by researchers.

https://www.foxnews.com/science/rese...iruses-in-bats