Quote:
Originally Posted by Xist
I understand that it is impossible to tell when exponential growth will end.
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The predictive power of a model depends on minimizing the variables and maximizing the precision of the data.
From what I've been hearing, every tool to combat the virus carries a lot of uncertainty with it, including the uncertainty of how the virus itself behaves.
An example is that there is likely at least 2 variants of the virus. It's unknown if antibodies to one strain of antigen confers immunity to the other. We could see a 2nd wave of the virus if immunity to 1 does not confer immunity to the other.
I'm sticking to my 200k US dead in 18 months prediction based on not much more than a WAG.
The death tracker I'm following shows the most US deaths yet were reported yesterday at 2,800.