New Coronavirus - COVID-19

[Xist]

I understand that it is impossible to tell when exponential growth will end.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by Xist

I understand that it is impossible to tell when exponential growth will end.

The predictive power of a model depends on minimizing the variables and maximizing the precision of the data.

From what I've been hearing, every tool to combat the virus carries a lot of uncertainty with it, including the uncertainty of how the virus itself behaves.

An example is that there is likely at least 2 variants of the virus. It's unknown if antibodies to one strain of antigen confers immunity to the other. We could see a 2nd wave of the virus if immunity to 1 does not confer immunity to the other.

I'm sticking to my 200k US dead in 18 months prediction based on not much more than a WAG.

The death tracker I'm following shows the most US deaths yet were reported yesterday at 2,800.

[wdb]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

The death tracker I'm following shows the most US deaths yet were reported yesterday at 2,800.

I'm tracking the numbers in my state and a few counties. Yesterday the state and two of the counties reported that a negative number of people died of COVID-19.

It's frustrating. I assume they're altering their criteria in the midst of the event, which essentially means the numbers are at best misleading and at worst totally useless.

[Xist]

When I go to update my spreadsheet based on https://www.worldometers.info/corona...us-death-toll/, often previous days vary a little bit. Right now it says "Coronavirus Death Toll 190,110 deaths," but the top of the chart is 184,066.

I do not believe that they have posted the final number for today, but the ticker will continue increasing as they receive additional data, while the chart will freeze for today, so it looks like there is a problem, but I am sure that the ticker shows immediate data, while the chart shows the data as of midnight or whenever the cutoff is.

I am pretty sure that old data varies because they receive updates, that a death that was diagnosed as coronavirus was ruled out, etc.

[Fat Charlie]

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Suffice it to say tons of people are dying of it and (literally (and not the way my 8th grade daughter uses the word)) uncounted others are infected with it. Does it really matter to us what the exact count is at any time? Keep in mind that the people keeping these records are doing it under bad conditions, and a daily uptick or slight lessening is meaningless even with perfect record keeping and reporting.

[redpoint5]

I do it as a gauge to compare what people are saying to what the data is showing. It's imperfect, but the trends are important. When early information was suggesting a 2% fatality rate and a 60% infection rate to develop herd immunity, I quickly realized 4 million (US) dead might be a possibility. It seems information lately has been more positive in this regard.

Also, I'm toying with the terrible idea of market timing investments. Plus, a group of friends have created a $100 investment game. The winner with the biggest value at the expiration of the game buys everyone else Scotch. I like to win, but I might not mind 2nd place.

... the tracker I'm following suggests we'll hit 50k dead today. I'd love to be wrong, but that's 25% of my 18 month prediction.

[redneck]

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Just released...





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[redneck]

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Early antibody testing.

It’s looking like the virus is not as deadly as thought.


https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus...source=twitter


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[redpoint5]

Dr. Campbell brought up the point that a person could conceivably get both covid-19 and the seasonal flu at the same time, and that would likely compound the severity of symptoms.

My own estimation is that Covid-19 probably presented itself at just about the perfect time since we're coming out of flu season and have spring, summer, and fall to deal with Covid-19 before having to contend with the next flu season.

[RedDevil]

Originally Posted by redneck

.

Early antibody testing.

It’s looking like the virus is not as deadly as thought.


https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus...source=twitter


>

Some retirement homes have seen half their population die from COVID-19. They probably won't agree the virus is less deadly than thought.

There may be another explanation for the positive antibody tests. Like that those tests are not 100% reliable.