Quote:
Originally Posted by cRiPpLe_rOoStEr
I wouldn't hold my breath for it to happen sooner than 20 years from now.
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Fully functional may never occur off restricted access freeways.
That is the truth of the matter from someone who has an inside view
Self driving focus (aka money) by the large players is only on very specific routes and primarily for large equipment.
Smart money is placing No meaningful effort at all on non-paved roads.
It is believed investment there is wasted and research is meaningless.
Instead because of the darpa outcomes the military IS investing in followers with basic avoidance for non-paved surfaces. The belief is Once a very specific set of paths is followed by humans many times automated vehicles will someday be able to drive those routes on their own efficiently so long as a human “out” is available to get them moving again if an unexpected event halts progress.
On their own perfectly implemented autonomous off road vehicles are extremely slow and almost spastic under specific circumstances, this isn’t an issue of computing power and is unlikely to be solved effectively in our lifetimes.
Instead you will likely see very specific corridors filled with autonomous semis going between specific depots to pick up a human driver to finish delivery. Also Mining operations will become more automated with off road routes getting plotted for material handling on campus.
Taxis for individuals are further off and are going to be more like a bus as they won’t go off specific routes and will be limited primarily to cities with favorable road conditions.
Northern cities that have Actual weather pretty much cripple these cars. Rural areas are a no go as well if you get off primary corridors, even subdivision style buildings are harder for these cars to navigate than pure city.
Door to door autonomous driving by private citizens will never occur unless large consessions are made by people and large upgrades to infrastructure are made to make things easier for the cars to function.