Are you on Team Bollinger or Team Rivian?

[RedDevil]

Hhhh. Nobody expected anything else. The stock actually dropped after that statement and I bought it.

Nobody knows when FSD will finally become fully functional, but Musk will never give up on it. It is the other self-driving companies that quit or fold one by one.

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

Nobody knows when FSD will finally become fully functional, but Musk will never give up on it.

I wouldn't hold my breath for it to happen sooner than 20 years from now.

[RedDevil]

I expect it will be much sooner than that. But I also expect there will be adaptations made to the roads to make them more suitable for self driving cars.

One logical application would be a harmonized system of hubs communicating local road conditions, speed limits etc. between road sections and cars (FSD or not).
For instance Tesla has a pothole registration system; once detected other Teslas will avoid them but also sign them off when they are fixed.
Things like that should not be confined to one make but made available to all traffic.

One of the hardest issues for FSD is estimating what other road users are about to do.
We judge other drivers based on clues.
My driving instructor told me to be extra aware of cars with 2 or more women, old male driver with younger female passenger, people holding something in their hands (even more valid since mobile phones arrived!), people wearing anything on their head in a car (even hair dye or ornaments is a cue), cars with 3 or more decals, damaged cars, black Rabbits, etc; people driving fast, slow, off center, even not swerving a bit when passing other traffic.
And literally all cars at any road junction or crossing, up to 20 meters past the exit.
Even if these all miss the point, it keeps one alert

While we don't know where the other drivers are heading or how they have been behaving so far, that data would be available to a local road hub. It could then communicate general 'flight plans' and potential hazards to the cars in that section, for as much as is relevant.
That would greatly increase road safety and help facilitate FSD.

[bobo333]

I've been on team Rivian since the early days, and I'm still very keen to see them hit the road. I'd pick the SUV over the pick up though.

Last I heard they were set back a little from the virus but were on track for early production models being in the wild a year from now

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

I also expect there will be adaptations made to the roads to make them more suitable for self driving cars

With so many unpaved rural roads, unless some infrastructure similar to what supports Instrument-Flight Rules gets implemented for road traffic, I wouldn't hold my breath for self-driving vehicles to become totally viable. And even if they reach that stage, I'd still be concerned in case of no interface for human override.

[rmay635703]

Originally Posted by cRiPpLe_rOoStEr

I wouldn't hold my breath for it to happen sooner than 20 years from now.

Fully functional may never occur off restricted access freeways.
That is the truth of the matter from someone who has an inside view

Self driving focus (aka money) by the large players is only on very specific routes and primarily for large equipment.

Smart money is placing No meaningful effort at all on non-paved roads.
It is believed investment there is wasted and research is meaningless.
Instead because of the darpa outcomes the military IS investing in followers with basic avoidance for non-paved surfaces. The belief is Once a very specific set of paths is followed by humans many times automated vehicles will someday be able to drive those routes on their own efficiently so long as a human “out” is available to get them moving again if an unexpected event halts progress.

On their own perfectly implemented autonomous off road vehicles are extremely slow and almost spastic under specific circumstances, this isn’t an issue of computing power and is unlikely to be solved effectively in our lifetimes.


Instead you will likely see very specific corridors filled with autonomous semis going between specific depots to pick up a human driver to finish delivery. Also Mining operations will become more automated with off road routes getting plotted for material handling on campus.

Taxis for individuals are further off and are going to be more like a bus as they won’t go off specific routes and will be limited primarily to cities with favorable road conditions.
Northern cities that have Actual weather pretty much cripple these cars. Rural areas are a no go as well if you get off primary corridors, even subdivision style buildings are harder for these cars to navigate than pure city.

Door to door autonomous driving by private citizens will never occur unless large consessions are made by people and large upgrades to infrastructure are made to make things easier for the cars to function.

[deluxx]

Originally Posted by jakobnev

How about "Electron engulfer".

"Amp Eater"

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Originally Posted by rmay635703

Door to door autonomous driving by private citizens will never occur unless large consessions are made by people and large upgrades to infrastructure are made to make things easier for the cars to function.

Frankly, would you expect people to make such large concessions? I wouldn't. In the end, we can relate all the rural driving issue to the feeder routes from smaller airstrips to major airports.

[rmay635703]

Originally Posted by cRiPpLe_rOoStEr

Frankly, would you expect people to make such large concessions? I wouldn't. In the end, we can relate all the rural driving issue to the feeder routes from smaller airstrips to major airports.

Will never occur was mentioned,

I do not believe autonomous is going to enter personal transportation

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Originally Posted by rmay635703

I do not believe autonomous is going to enter personal transportation

Even for commercial applications, I'd still not expect most people to approve it. Either for some skepticism about its efficiency or simply because they would rather indulge themselves pretending to be somewhat "superior" to a driver.