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Originally Posted by JSH
CNG and LNG will take off when large fleets decide it is cheaper to run than diesel.
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I wouldn't hold my breath for LNG due to the higher cost of processing and its more dangerous storage. CNG on the other hand only needs to become more easily available. In my hometown Porto Alegre it's still widely used by taxi drivers even though the price skyrocketted recently, while in smaller cities with fewer stations providing CNG refuelling even commercial operators are not using it anymore. Not to mention Bolivia where imports of vehicles with Diesel engines below 4-litre were forbidden in 2004 or 2005 initially could be seen as a step toward a transition to CNG but such plan failed because CNG stations were not fairly distributed on a nationwide basis, or in Venezuela where CNG also failed as a desperate attempt to release more gasoline and Diesel fuel for export at higher prices than the heavily subsidized domestic market.
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Emission regulations are helping to speed that transition as NG trucks burn clean enough to avoid urea injection and particulate filters. They are as simple as pre-emission diesels.
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Urea injection is a PITA, and so are the particulate filters. Considering smaller trucks and vans for which naturally-aspirated gassers are still favored in the USA, Mexico and Canada, a transition to CNG might be quite smooth.
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It is way simpler to add to the natural gas infrastructure than to try to start over with hydrogen or HD electric charging stations (which are impractical anyway)
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Even resorting to biomethane, which could not only provide a better destination to organic waste in general but also decrease the release of raw methane into the atmosphere and serve as a way to add value to byproducts of farming such as livestock manure, makes more sense than hydrogen. A switch to full electrification of motoring is quite a pipedream as much as hydrogen.