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Old 09-22-2020, 03:12 PM   #15 (permalink)
redpoint5
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Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Oregon
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Acura TSX - '06 Acura TSX
90 day: 24.19 mpg (US)

Lafawnda - CBR600 - '01 Honda CBR600 F4i
90 day: 47.32 mpg (US)

Big Yeller - Dodge/Cummins - '98 Dodge Ram 2500 base
90 day: 21.82 mpg (US)

Chevy ZR-2 - '03 Chevrolet S10 ZR2
90 day: 17.14 mpg (US)

Model Y - '24 Tesla Y LR AWD

Pacifica Hybrid - '21 Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid
90 day: 57.45 mpg (US)
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It can be reliably assumed that any announcement from Tesla will result in a 2 year target date, with likely delays pushing that back even further.

On the tangent topic of battery constraints ultimately limiting EV sales volume, there was an interesting TED talk that proposed PHEV as a better use of limited battery production capability. Rather than build 1 EV that can go 400 miles on a charge with a 100 kWh battery, make 10 PHEVs that can go 40 miles on a charge. The idea is that although some trips would exceed the EV range, 85% of the miles could be accomplished in EV mode. This strategy maximizes the scarce battery resources by bringing utilizing more of the capacity in each vehicle, and minimizing the cost by not equipping the vehicle with more battery than is typically needed.

Assuming 12,000 miles per year, a single 100 kWh EV would drive 12,000 EV miles. If that battery were distributed across 10 PHEVs which drive 85% of miles in EV mode, that would be 102,000 miles, or 8.5x more.

The current focus on EV production is misguided, especially given the current federal tax credit rules which would allow manufacturers to maximize the incentive with a minimally sized battery. Not only would it be more environmentally friendly to focus on PHEVs, but it would be the smarter financial move in the short-term.

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