Tesla Battery Day Thread

[hayden55]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

Photo's of cells presumably made by Tesla themselves at the Kato Road facility in Fremont. And they are huge; over 7 times the capacity of Model 3 cells, over 10 times the Model S cells.


Time to take profit!

So its official that we have the 69420 cells finally.

I will say the larger size will be a good thing. The current cells are just too small for the assembly process. It takes so long to assemble them that the majority of the pack price is labor on most assembly or disassembly projects with these cylindrical lithium batteries.

[RedDevil]

It is not official yet. Even if the cells are legit the size may be different after all as afaik it is still just a guess; you cannot measure from those photos.

Musk lifted a tip of the veil:

We intend to increase, not reduce battery cell purchases from Panasonic, LG & CATL (possibly other partners too). However, even with our cell suppliers going at maximum speed, we still foresee significant shortages in 2022 & beyond unless we also take action ourselves

The mind-blowing may well involve production numbers beyond anyone's expectation?
China, Germany and Texas are large enough to produce over half a million cars per year each, so... to blow minds it must be more than that even?

@freebeard: I just put a limit order on 20 FUV. It needs to drop a bit to execute, so it may not materialize; but I like the Arcimoto even though I'll probably never own one.

[MetroMPG]

Subscribed for the informed chatter. I have no horse in this race, but Elon is interesting.

[freebeard]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCH4BGehTN8

[redpoint5]

It can be reliably assumed that any announcement from Tesla will result in a 2 year target date, with likely delays pushing that back even further.

On the tangent topic of battery constraints ultimately limiting EV sales volume, there was an interesting TED talk that proposed PHEV as a better use of limited battery production capability. Rather than build 1 EV that can go 400 miles on a charge with a 100 kWh battery, make 10 PHEVs that can go 40 miles on a charge. The idea is that although some trips would exceed the EV range, 85% of the miles could be accomplished in EV mode. This strategy maximizes the scarce battery resources by bringing utilizing more of the capacity in each vehicle, and minimizing the cost by not equipping the vehicle with more battery than is typically needed.

Assuming 12,000 miles per year, a single 100 kWh EV would drive 12,000 EV miles. If that battery were distributed across 10 PHEVs which drive 85% of miles in EV mode, that would be 102,000 miles, or 8.5x more.

The current focus on EV production is misguided, especially given the current federal tax credit rules which would allow manufacturers to maximize the incentive with a minimally sized battery. Not only would it be more environmentally friendly to focus on PHEVs, but it would be the smarter financial move in the short-term.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1E8SQde5rk

[RedDevil]

One thing to expect: battery costs are going down substantially. Not just the new cells but all cells.
The cost of the stationary 232 kWh PowerPack battery has just come down from $170,000 to $125,000 hours before Battery Day...

[jakobnev]

1. Million mile battery.
2. 400 wh/kg.

3. 1 & 2 two years from now.

[freebeard]

2. 400 wh/kg.

Minimum for Electric VTOL

[oil pan 4]

I thought the claimed to already be making million mile batteries?

[redpoint5]

Tesla live stream is on now:

https://livestream.tesla.com/