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Old 09-25-2020, 09:41 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by redpoint5 View Post
May I get a layman's overview of the laws? 25% of vehicles have to be ZEV by 2025?.
The top line view is 4.5% of vehicle sold must be EVs in 2018 growing to 22% in 2025. The reality is it isn't that simple.

It is all based on credits and manufacturers have been booking credits since 2000. Manufacturers book credits for ZEVs (electric cars and plug-in hybrids) BEVx (range extended EVs), NEVs (Neighborhood electric vehicles) TZEV (hybrids), and PHEV (gas cars with completely sealed fuel systems and certified SULEV emissions) All of these book credits based on complicated formula.

Companies can use these credits if they fall short of the goal or they can sell them to other manufacturers that fall short. (This is where Tesla's profits come from)

The most recent data set for booked credits is from 2018 and it may surprise you. The company with the most credits is Toyota, followed by GM, then Tesla.

Credits expire at the end of 2025 and have no value on January 1st, 2026.

So when all is said and done CARB predicts that in 2025 only 8% of car sales will be electric.

The Heavy Duty ZEV mandate is different. It requires 5% of trucks to be ZEV (Electric or hydrogen) in 2024, 50% in 2035, and 100% in 2045. However, it is more complicated then that of course. In general lighter duty trucks need to go electric faster and the shorter the hauling distance the quicker the ramp up. For example 100% of port and drayage trucks have to be electric in 2035 but only 40% of Class 7-8 on-highway trucks. The ramp up is also different for straight trucks vs tractors.

Last edited by JSH; 09-26-2020 at 03:01 AM..
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