Quote:
Originally Posted by freebeard
Fifty year hiatus and then simultaneous propulsive landings? Have you considered the number of Starships and their rate of manufacture? Vs the government managed SLS?
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If you skip the hype .. and look at the measurable performance numbers .. the rate of improvement has been getting slower and slower.
1st man made satellite -- 1957
A ~184lbs sphere
1st maned orbit -- 1961
In just 4 years they made massive improvement.
~4.7 tonnes .. ~51x more weight & vastly improved performance / abilities.
Yes progress has continued .. the 2021 New Glenn from Blue Origin is designed to lift into low orbit as much as 99,000 lbs ~(~50Tons) in one launch .. and sure that's about a ~10.5x more than the best back in 1961 .. but it took ~60years to get 10.5x more .. that is a far far slower rate of improvement than the ~51x more in ~4 years.
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But lbs per trip isn't the only metric .. how about cost
Sure things are much cheaper than they were $/kg .. and sure things continue to get cheaper $/kg .. but the rate at which they are getting cheaper has slowed down allot .. and continues to slow down .. look at the crazy price drop from 1960 to 1970 .. then compare that slope (rate of change) to the slope (rate of change) from 2010 to 2020.
Source
Link.
We are getting better .. but the rate of improvement in technological progress is slowing down .. I expect the next 10 years by 2030 will show improvement .. but even less improvement than we saw from 2010 to 2020.
Diminishing returns.