Aptera Reboot - Improved

[freebeard]

Originally Posted by IamIan

When things change soo fast that a person is just not able to adapt fast enough .. it can actually be the cause of what ends up latter killing them.

It's indirect .. because it isn't the lack of coping / adapting that directly kills them .. but it can be that the lack of coping / adapting can prevent them from still being able to get the core essentials for life (air, water, food , shelter).

I think it is far more common in today's age (in 1st world countries like USA) for people to just go past the point of the amount of change they like .. they start to actively spend their time and money to oppose the change.

Tell that to the Amish. Or the Mennonites.

What I see is that as William Gibson said, the future is here, it's just not evenly distributed. In the 1960s I figured by now I'd be living in a bubble of light, instead of an aluminum can.

Consider the opposite: People who unthinkingly accept the new (McMansions, Facebook, smart phones, Biden) and swallow or deny their remorse.

Moore's law may have plateaued, but not so with free and open source software. Are you following the progress in Blender? Their development community is one place you can live six months in the future. Progress happens where it's allowed.

[samwichse]

But "The Aptera" is really a halo car. The founders have already said they have a 4 wheel car in the works.

If you think about it, all new entrants start with a halo car and try and work their way inward towards the mass-demand markets. Look at Tesla. The roadster, then the Model S, X, and finally the 3 and Y. Fisker started with the Karma, but flopped. I'd even bet the FUV is only the tip of the iceberg and Arcimoto would like to work their way towards enclosed vehicles.

The halo-ness of the Aptera is in a totally different direction of performance (extreme efficiency), but they can carry the aura of ultimate efficiency through to their follow-up models.

Will they? I dunno. I hope they at least do better than Fisker did and can at least work from a niche like Arcimoto. Just ,SELL SOMETHING this time round, please?

[IamIan]

Originally Posted by freebeard

Tell that to the Amish. Or the Mennonites.

I think they are a 100% perfect example of the 2nd part .. they spend extra time and effort to deliberately avoid adapting to some changes.

But .. they are not the 1st case that you indicated .. If they were they would be dead .. when the choice is adapt or die .. those who live chose to adapt (one way or the other) .. the Amish do choose to adapt enough to survive .. soo , not that 1st case.

An example of the 1st case would be Neanderthal humans .. they did not adapt to the changes they faced .. that lack of adapting was the indirect cause of their death.

The 'native' Americans who did not adapt .. and tried to keep living the old ways .. when faced with the changes the Europeans brought .. those that did not adapt .. that was the cause that resulted in their death .. those that lived are the ones who were willing & able to adapt to the changes they faced.

Those Amish that were the 1st case .. say they got some kind of life threatening sickness or injury .. but they were the ones that were not willing or able to adapt and use modern 'evil' tech hospitals .. well .. they died , because they were not willing or able to adapt to the change that would have allowed them to stay live.

Originally Posted by freebeard

Moore's law may have plateaued, but not so with free and open source software.

I'd disagree .. feel free to look at open source software .. the same diminishing returns .. slowing of progress is there too .. not even just open source software .. all software.

Software bloat is a real thing for all software .. including open source software.

Sure the first calculator software had it's problems .. and sure it has continued to get better .. but the rate of improvement continues to slow .. how much better is the calculator program today compared to one from 20 years ago ? .. does it use less bytes of storage for it's instruction set .. does it achieve the correct finished math with less CPU clock cycles .. is 1+1 somehow faster for a human to type in today than it was ~20 years ago .. etc.. etc .. better sure .. in smaller and smaller ways .. less and less better every new decade.

But .. sure .. I can be wrong .. wouldn't be the 1st time in my life .. but .. I'll need more than just you claiming it to be so .. I'll need evidence please .. evidence that shows the rate of improvement is increasing.

Some evidence not just of improvement .. but that the rate of improvement itself is still increasing .. something thing like ..

New in 2020 9x better than what was new in 2010
New in 2010 8x better than what was new in 2000
New in 2000 7x better than what was new in 1990
New in 1990 6x better than what was new in 1980
New in 1980 5x better than what was new in 1970
New in 1970 4x better than what was new in 1960
New in 1960 3x better than what was new in 1950
New in 1950 2x better than the 1st software in 1940s.

or some other similar increasingly faster rate of improvement.

All the open source software .. like all software .. That I'm aware of .. is following the same diminishing returns .. slower and slower progress .. to get smaller and smaller improvements.

[Isaac Zachary]

I don't think it's change vs. death. At least it isn't as far as choosing what car to drive.

People accept changes, even huge changes, on what seems like would aid them is some way. That could be mostly or purely for social reasons (like getting what others think is cool). Or could be for practical reasons (like a tool that helps them get things done quicker or better).

The Amish and Mennonites don't accept changes because they believe there is no value or benefit in doing so, not because they can't handle them.

If change shock were a problem we wouldn't have jumped into vehicles, computers, the internet and social media so quickly as a society.

Invent one "cool" doodad and the next thing you know everyone wants one. The problem is making it cool in the first place.

[freebeard]

But .. sure .. I can be wrong .. wouldn't be the 1st time in my life .. but .. I'll need more than just you claiming it to be so .. I'll need evidence please .. evidence that shows the rate of improvement is increasing.

I'm not going to be any help.

I have no interest in trying to change your mind. *cough*SpaceX*cough*

[IamIan]

Originally Posted by freebeard

I'm not going to be any help.

I have no interest in trying to change your mind. *cough*SpaceX*cough*

SpaceX (and space flight in general) is another good example of diminishing returns .. slowing down the rate of improvement and a slowing in the rate of progress over time.

[freebeard]

Fifty year hiatus and then simultaneous propulsive landings? Have you considered the number of Starships and their rate of manufacture? Vs the government managed SLS?

The World's richest man is an African-American?

[IamIan]

Originally Posted by freebeard

Fifty year hiatus and then simultaneous propulsive landings? Have you considered the number of Starships and their rate of manufacture? Vs the government managed SLS?

If you skip the hype .. and look at the measurable performance numbers .. the rate of improvement has been getting slower and slower.

1st man made satellite -- 1957
A ~184lbs sphere

1st maned orbit -- 1961
In just 4 years they made massive improvement.
~4.7 tonnes .. ~51x more weight & vastly improved performance / abilities.

Yes progress has continued .. the 2021 New Glenn from Blue Origin is designed to lift into low orbit as much as 99,000 lbs ~(~50Tons) in one launch .. and sure that's about a ~10.5x more than the best back in 1961 .. but it took ~60years to get 10.5x more .. that is a far far slower rate of improvement than the ~51x more in ~4 years.

- - - - -

But lbs per trip isn't the only metric .. how about cost
Sure things are much cheaper than they were $/kg .. and sure things continue to get cheaper $/kg .. but the rate at which they are getting cheaper has slowed down allot .. and continues to slow down .. look at the crazy price drop from 1960 to 1970 .. then compare that slope (rate of change) to the slope (rate of change) from 2010 to 2020.

Source Link.

We are getting better .. but the rate of improvement in technological progress is slowing down .. I expect the next 10 years by 2030 will show improvement .. but even less improvement than we saw from 2010 to 2020.

Diminishing returns.

[freebeard]

I'm not denying that we appear to be in for a Dark Winter.

[RedDevil]

There was nothing much happening in space since the retirement of the shuttle, but that's not the fault of the people working to change that like SpaceX.

Finally they make things happen that never happened before like landing first stage rockets (other than dropping them in the ocean on a parachute), low orbit high speed satellite internet, human flight to Mars, settlement on the Moon and Mars... the sky is not the limit.