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Old 02-08-2021, 06:46 PM   #757 (permalink)
JSH
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redpoint5 View Post
I'm constantly amazed at how slow the auto industry is to innovate considering the fierce competition.
The answer is cost and economy of scale. Yes, competition is fierce - especially on the cost of a car. So companies only spend money on things that customer care about or thing required by regulation. Customers don't care what voltage is used for their electrical accessories.

So while 48V is better for the modern car's needs someone has to take the first step. Yes, there are dozens of automakers but they are mostly pulling for an overlapping pool of suppliers which creates huge economy of scale. A company like Denso or Delco is tooled up to make 12v alternators. Yes, they vary in detail from one car to another but the basic design and tooling are the same. Most of the tier 2, 3, 4... components are the same and mixed and matched in different ways. So the first company that switches to 48V is going to pay a huge premium to help tool up those suppliers to make a small number of parts. Yes, Toyota might sell 400K RAV4s but there are 80 million cars sold a year and almost all of them have 12v electronics. They also can't just slowly switch a piece at a time, all the accessories need to change and you would likely add a couple hundred dollars to the cost of the car in an industry that gets excited about saving a penny. (We can't add $1 to a vehicle without approval from the C-suite)

So something has to push the move to 48V. 48V hybrids have been around for more than a decade but never caught on. They systems work great and improve fuel economy about 15% but they cost money and customers were not willing to pay the $750 - $1000 for a 48V hybrid system.

Enter the EU's 2020 CO2 regulations. With the EU's 95 g/km CO2 limit $1000 to save 15% is cheap. The EU fine is 95 euro per g/km CO2 and one MPG = 5457 g/km CO2. Automakers don't have a choice and everyone has to meet those CO2 limits so there is no waiting for someone else to go first. Those 48V hybrids will drive the economy of scale on the 48V components to bring down the cost to a point it might make sense to move away from 12V.

(In 2020 13% of vehicles sold in the EU were 48V hybrids. That is expected to jump to 50% in 2025)

Quote:
Originally Posted by redpoint5 View Post
48v should have been standard from the beginning. How did it start with 12v?
In the beginning the only thing electric on a car was the lights. 6V batteries were enough for that. As more things were added it jumped to 12V. We are well past the time to jump again but, again, $$$$.
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